Cablegate: Z-4: Goc's Objections Are Deep and Firm

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLASSIFIED LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 00454

SIPDIS

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VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA; USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE

BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU

E.O. 12356: DECL: N/A
TAGS:
SUBJECT: Z-4: GOC'S OBJECTIONS ARE DEEP AND FIRM

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SUMMARY
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1. (LOU) THE GOC'S EXPRESSED WILLINGNESS TO
"CONSIDER" THE Z-4 PLAN HAS HELPED CROATIA PRESENT A
"REASONABLE" FACE THAT CONTRASTS FAVORABLY WITH THE
KRAJINA SERBS' INTRANSIGENCE. NEVERTHELESS, CROATIAN
OBJECTIONS TO VARIOUS ELEMENTS OF THE PLAN ARE DEEPLY
HELD. A POINT-BY-POINT REVIEW IN THE HEAVILY
GOVERNMENT-INFLUENCED "VJESNIK" FEBRUARY 1, WHICH
ESSENTIALLY EVISCERATES ELEMENTS OF THE PLAN, APPEARS
INDICATIVE. END SUMMARY.

2. (LOU) AFTER THE Z-4 GROUP'S JANUARY 30 PRESENTATION
OF ITS PLAN FOR POLITICAL REINTEGRATION OF THE SERB-
CONTROLLED AREAS OF CROATIA, THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT
EXPRESSED ITS WILLINGNESS TO REVIEW THE PLAN AND TO
ACCEPT IT AS A BASIS FOR NEGOTIATION. IN LIGHT OF THE
GOC'S KNOWLEDGE THAT THE "RSK WOULD FIND THE PLAN
UNACCEPTABLE EVEN IF IT HAD AGREED TO RECEIVE A COPY OF
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IT, THE CROATIAN REACTION WAS UNDOUBTEDLY CRAFTED IN
PART TO HELP MAINTAIN THE GOC'S IMAGE OF REASONABLENESS
AS A SERIOUS PARTNER OF THE "WEST," EXPLORING ALL
AVENUES TO A PEACEFUL SOLUTION.

3. (LOU) THE ORAL REACTIONS OF CROATIAN LEADERS,
HOWEVER -- BEGINNING BEFORE ACTUAL PRESENTATION WITH
PRESIDENT TUDJMAN'S FULMINATIONS ABOUT THE PLAN AND HIS
EXPRESS HOPE THAT IT WOULD NOT BE PRESENTED TO THE KNIN
SERBS -- MAKE CLEAR THAT THE CROATS HAVE SERIOUS
RESERVATIONS ON MANY ASPECTS OF THE Z-4 PLAN, MOST
RELATING TO ITS PERCEIVED INFRINGEMENTS OF CROATIAN
SOVEREIGNTY. AS FM GRANIC TOLD 'DIE WELT,' THERE
SHOULD BE NO ELEMENTS OF A "STATE WITHIN A STATE."
(DETAILS SEPTEL.) FURTHER, PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER
SARINIC, AFTER RECEIVING HIS COPY OF THE PLAN, NOT ONLY
WENT PUBLIC WITH SOME RESERVATIONS, BUT CARPED ABOUT
THE Z-4 GROUP'S "AUTONOMOUSLY NEGOTIATING" WITH THE
KRAJINA SERBS.

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AUTHORITATIVE "VJESNIK" RIPS INTO THE PLAN
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4. (U) THE NATIONAL DAILY "VJESNIK," AUTHORITATIVE
BECAUSE OF ITS FAMILIAL TIES TO THE HDZ, PROVIDED ON
FEBRUARY 1 AN INITIAL PUBLIC GUIDE TO GOVERNMENT
THINKING ON CERTAIN UNACCEPTABLE ASPECTS OF THE PLAN.
THE ARTICLE CARRIES A FULL-PAGE REVIEW OF THE PLAN
TITLED "WHAT IS QUESTIONABLE IN THE Z-4 PLAN?" MAIN
POINTS WERE:
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-- "SERBIAN KRAJINA": THE PLAN'S USE OF THIS TERM IS
"COMPLETELY UNACCEPTABLE" BECAUSE IT HAS NO BASIS IN
FACT, HISTORY, OR CONSTITUTIONAL LAW.

-- OVERLAPPING LEGISLATION: THE PLAN'S PROVISION THAT
CROATIAN LAW WOULD PREVAIL IN THE AUTONOMOUS AREA, BUT
THAT KNIN COULD ALSO APPROVE LAWS THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE
HONORED BY CROATIAN AUTHORITIES "NEGATES THE BASIC
CONDITIONS OF THE SOVEREIGNTY OF ONE NATION" SO IT IS
"HARDLY PROBABLE" THAT CROATIA COULD ACCEPT IT.

-- FLAG AND COAT-OF-ARMS: CURIOUSLY, GIVEN PRESIDENT
TUDJMAN'S EARLIER RHETORIC AGAINST THESE PROVISIONS,
VJESNIK SIMPLY REPORTS WHAT THE PLAN PROPOSES, WITHOUT
SPECIFICALLY REJECTING IT.

-- TWO EQUALLY VALID CURRENCIES: "DIFFICULT TO SEE
(THIS IDEA) AS AN AFFIRMATION OF SOVEREIGNTY...." (THE
ARTICLE INCORRECTLY SUGGESTS THAT CROATIA WOULD BECOME

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ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 OASY-00 DOEE-00 FBIE-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-14 L-01 ADS-00 M-00
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-00 PRS-01
P-01 SB-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00
USIE-00 PMB-00 PRMC-01 DRL-09 G-00 /034W
------------------A1CC61 011722Z /38
P 011701Z FEB 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4697
INFO CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XP/IN//
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-PMA/J21//
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5//
HQUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5//
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE

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VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA; USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE

BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU

E.O. 12356: DECL: N/A
TAGS:
SUBJECT: Z-4: GOC'S OBJECTIONS ARE DEEP AND FIRM

THE "ONLY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD" WITH SUCH A SYSTEM.)

-- TAX AND REVENUE POLICY: THE PLAN'S PROVISION THAT
THE SERBS COULD RAISE AND SPEND THEIR OWN TAXES IS
"DUBIOUS," THOUGH THE PLAN LEAVES IT TO THE PARTIES TO
WORK OUT SPECIFICS.

-- SEPARATE GOVERNMENT IN THE SERB AUTONOMOUS AREA:
"MUCH" OF WHAT THE PLAN PROPOSES IS "UNACCEPTABLE."
THE ARTICLE SINGLES OUT THE SUGGESTION THAT SERBS
ELECTED TO THE SABOR FROM THE KRAJINA AND THOSE ELECTED
ELSEWHERE IN CROATIA WOULD FORM A SINGLE PARLIAMENTARY
GROUP FOR ATTACK, NOTING THIS WOULD MAKE THEM
"PROFESSIONAL SERBS" RATHER THAN REPRESENTATIVES OF
DIFFERENT POLITICAL PARTIES/OPTIONS.

-- DEFENSE: THE PROVISION THAT THE CROATIAN ARMY COULD
ENTER THE "KRAJINA" (BEYOND THE BORDER AREAS) ONLY BY
INVITATION OF THE SERB AUTHORITIES "ENCROACHES SHARPLY"
ON CROATIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND "SIMPLY CANNOT BE
ACCEPTED." HERE, THE PLAN'S AUTHORS ARE "GROSSLY
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INTERFERING IN THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF THE REPUBLIC OF
CROATIA."

-- COURTS: THE PROPOSAL THAT KRAJINA OFFICIALS WOULD
BE NEITHER ANSWERABLE TO, NOR REPLACEABLE BY, THE
CROATIAN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT IS "ESPECIALLY
UNACCEPTABLE."

-- SLAVONIA (SECTOR EAST): MANY OF THE PLAN'S SPECIAL
ARRANGEMENTS FOR SECTOR EAST ARE QUESTIONABLE; THERE IS
NO REASON FOR DEMILITARIZATION OF THE AREA, WHICH
"CANNOT BE ACCEPTABLE;" LIKEWISE UNACCEPTABLE IS THE
PROPOSED TWO-YEAR UN MANDATE OVER THE AREA. (COMMENT:
CROATIAN CONTACT GROUP REP AMB. ZUZUL, HOWEVER, HAS
DOWNPLAYED PROBLEMS ON THIS ISSUE.)

-- CITIZENSHIP: THESE PROVISIONS ARE "VERY UNUSUAL."
DUAL CITIZENSHIP (IN CROATIA AND THE "FEDERAL REPUBLIC
OF YUGOSLAVIA") IS DUBIOUS. THE PROVISION THAT NO ONE
IN CROATIA (EXCEPT PERSONS SPECIFICALLY ACCUSED OF
DEFINED WAR CRIMES) WOULD BE SUBJECT TO PROSECUTION BY
KNIN OR ZAGREB AUTHORITIES FOR ACTS COMMITTED DURING
THE WAR "WILL BE ESPECIALLY INTERESTING" TO CROATIAN
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS WHO SUFFERED BRUTAL SERB
AGGRESSION (BUT THE ARTICLE DOES NOT SPECIFICALLY
REJECT THIS CLAUSE).

-- THE VJESNIK ARTICLE CLOSES WITH A NOD TO THE
SUPPOSED NEGOTIABILITY OF THE PLAN'S PROVISIONS, BUT
POINTS OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT THAT IS UNACCEPTABLE
BECAUSE IT GOES WELL BEYOND THE RELEVANT UNSC
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RESOLUTIONS.

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COMMENT
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5. (LOU) THE VJESNIK PIECE AFFORDS THE CROATIAN PUBLIC
ITS FIRST DETAILED, GOVERNMENT-AUTHORIZED LOOK AT SOME
OF THE MORE ODIOUS (TO THE CROATS) ELEMENTS OF THE
PLAN. THIS CRITIQUE WILL STRIKE A BROAD AND RESPONSIVE
CHORD AMONG THE GENERAL PUBLIC. SOME OF THE SPECIFIC
OBJECTIONS SEEM TO DENY EVEN THE ESSENCE OF TRUE LOCAL
AUTONOMY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE -- BARELY -- THAT THESE
COULD BE MODIFIED IN THE COURSE OF NEGOTIATIONS (SHOULD
ANY EVER TAKE PLACE). THE MOST FIRMLY STATED CONCERNS
IN THE "VJESNIK" CRITIQUE, HOWEVER, ARE THOSE OF
CROATIAN GOVERNMENT AUTHORITY IN AREAS SUCH AS DEFENSE,
AND THE ROLE OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT AS THE FINAL
ARBITER OF ISSUES, EVEN IN THE "AUTONOMOUS AREAS"
(I.E., "SOVEREIGNTY"), AND THESE ARE POINTS ON WHICH

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ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 OASY-00 DOEE-00 FBIE-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-14 L-01 ADS-00 M-00
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-00 PRS-01
P-01 SB-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00
USIE-00 PMB-00 PRMC-01 DRL-09 G-00 /034W
------------------A1CC68 011723Z /38
P 011701Z FEB 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4698
INFO CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XP/IN//
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-PMA/J21//
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5//
HQUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5//
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE

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LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 000454

VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA; USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE

BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU

E.O. 12356: DECL: N/A
TAGS:
SUBJECT: Z-4: GOC'S OBJECTIONS ARE DEEP AND FIRM

THE GOC IS EXTREMELY UNLIKELY TO COMPROMISE. THE
CROATS ARE NOT MUCH MORE ENAMORED OF THE PLAN THAN THE
SERBS (ALTHOUGH THEY ARE BEING DISINGENUOUS IN CLAIMING
IT DOES NOT MEET UNSC STANDARDS), BUT THEY ARE PLAYING
THEIR HAND MUCH BETTER.

GALBRAITH

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