Cablegate: Mahathir Feuding with Islamic Conservatives

R 230155Z OCT 97
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9262
INFO AMEMBASSY HANOI
AMEMBASSY RANGOON
AMEMBASSY BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN
AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE
AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI
AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE
AMEMBASSY MANILA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 004130

CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: (OCTOBER 20, 2007)
TAGS: PGOV PREL MY
SUBJECT: MAHATHIR FEUDING WITH ISLAMIC CONSERVATIVES

1. CLASSIFIED BY JOHN R. MALOTT, AMBASSADOR. REASON:
1.5(D).

2. (C) SUMMARY. AS MALAYSIA'S CURRENCY HAS TUMBLED AND
ITS SKIES HAVE FILLED WITH HAZE, PM MAHATHIR HAS STILL
FOUND TIME FOR A NASTY DISPUTE WITH ISLAMIC
CONSERVATIVES. RECENT ACTIONS BY ZEALOUS RELIGIOUS
OFFICIALS LED THE PM TO ANNOUNCE A PLAN TO UNIFY SYARIAH
LAW AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL (STRIPPING POWER FROM STATE
RELIGIOUS OFFICIALS) AND TO CALL PUBLICLY FOR A MORE
MODERATE, MODERN ISLAM. OUTRAGED MOSLEM CLERICS HAVE
CIRCULATED ANONYMOUS LITERATURE ATTACKING THE PM AND THE
RULING PARTY AND HAVE CRITICIZED THE GOVERNMENT IN FRIDAY
SERMONS. THE PROMINENT MUFTI OF SELANGOR STATE EVEN
CALLED MAHATHIR AN APOSTATE. THE GOVERNMENT HAS REACTED
BY SACKING THE MUFTI, WARNING OTHER ISLAMIC LEADERS, AND
CURTAILING OPEN DISTRIBUTION OF ISLAMIC OPPOSITION PARTY
LITERATURE. THE WIDER MALAY COMMUNITY SHARES SOME OF THE
CLERICS' CONCERNS, THOUGH FAR LESS ACUTELY; WOMEN
ACTIVISTS SEEM TO BE THE SOLE MOSLEM CONSTITUENCY
SQUARELY BACKING THE PM. DESPITE MAHATHIR'S BIZARRE
OUTBURSTS AGAINST "THE WEST" DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS,
IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THE PM ADVOCATES A VERSION OF
ISLAM THAT SERVES U.S. INTERESTS IN MALAYSIA AND IN THE
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC COMMUNITY. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
MAHATHIR'S HEIR APPARENT, DEPUTY PM ANWAR, WHO IS SO
REASONABLE ON MANY ISSUES, HAS THE POLITICAL POSITION OR
THE DESIRE TO TAKE ON MOSLEM CONSERVATISM AS VIGOROUSLY
AS MAHATHIR HAS DONE. IN THE LONG RUN, THE GROWING
PROPORTION OF MALAYS IN MALAYSIA'S ETHNIC MIX WILL
PROBABLY LEAD INEXORABLY TO THE FURTHER ISLAMIZATION OF
MALAYSIAN SOCIETY. END SUMMARY.

MAHATHIR ATTACKS CONSERVATIVE ISLAM
-----------------------------------

3. (U) PM MAHATHIR, LIKE MANY OTHER WESTERN-EDUCATED
MALAYS OF HIS GENERATION, IS AN OBSERVING MOSLEM WITH A
MODERATE, LARGELY SECULAR WORLD VIEW. SEVERAL INCIDENTS
INVOLVING ZEALOUS ISLAMIC AUTHORITIES HAVE ANGERED THE PM
OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. IN JULY, A UNIT OF THE
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION PROPOSED MAKING THE STUDY OF
"ISLAMIC CIVILIZATION" COMPULSORY FOR ALL STUDENTS,
INCLUDING NON-MALAYS (IN MALAYSIA, MALAYS ARE NEARLY ALL
MOSLEMS AND, EXCEPT FOR SOME INDIAN MOSLEMS, NON-MALAYS
ARE NEARLY ALL NON-MOSLEMS). AFTER PROTESTS (AND THE
PM'S INTERVENTION), THE REQUIRED COURSE WAS BROADENED TO
"ASIAN CIVILIZATION." IN AUGUST, SELANGOR STATE
RELIGIOUS AUTHORITIES LED THREE MALAY WOMEN AWAY IN
HANDCUFFS FOR TAKING PART IN A BEAUTY PAGEANT, ATTRACTING
THE ATTENTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL PRESS. ALSO IN
AUGUST, SARAWAK ISLAMIC AUTHORITIES WARNED SEVERAL MALAY
MEN NOT TO TAKE PART IN A BODYBUILDING COMPETITION THAT
INCLUDED POSING IN BRIEF OUTFITS. THE BODYBUILDERS
IGNORED THIS WARNING AND NEVER RECEIVED PUNISHMENT,
HOWEVER.

4. (C) AFTER THE MESSY BEAUTY CONTEST INCIDENT, THE PM
SAID THAT BY EARLY 1998 THE GOVERNMENT WOULD UNIFY
SYARIAH LAW AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL THUS SHARPLY CURBING THE
AUTONOMY OF LOCAL RELIGIOUS AUTHORITIES. THE PM SAID
VARYING STATE INTERPRETATIONS OF ISLAMIC LAW "CONFUSED
THE PEOPLE" AND ORDERED ALL ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITIES
SUSPENDED PENDING THE REVIEW OF STATE LAWS. HE ALSO
ORDERED STATE MUFTIS TO REVIEW ALL PROPOSED DECREES WITH
AN ADVISORY PANEL THAT MUST INCLUDE WOMEN
REPRESENTATIVES. THEORETICALLY, THE GOVERNMENT'S PLAN
FOR STANDARDIZATION OF SYARIAH LAW WILL REQUIRE THE
AGREEMENT OF THE STATES' RULING SULTANS, BUT SUCH
CONSTITUTIONAL NICETIES HAVE RARELY DELAYED THE PM
BEFORE. THE "UNIFICATION" OF SYARIAH LAW EARLY NEXT YEAR
IS ALREADY A FAIT ACCOMPLI AND CONSERVATIVE CLERICS KNOW
IT, BUT DON'T LIKE IT.

5. (C) IN EARLY SEPTEMBER, MAHATHIR UNEXPECTEDLY TOOK UP
THE ISLAMIC ISSUE IN HIS KEYNOTE SPEECH AT THE UMNO
(MALAYSIA'S RULING PARTY) GENERAL ASSEMBLY. IN HIS
SPEECH, MAHATHIR CALLED ON MALAYS TO REJECT EXTREMISM AND
NOTED THE RESULTS OF SECTARIAN VIOLENCE IN BOSNIA AND THE
MIDDLE EAST. HE SAID MOSLEMS NEEDED TO MODERNIZE THEIR
BELIEFS AND PRACTICES IN ACCORD WITH THE CHANGED
CONDITIONS OF MODERN LIFE. HE ALSO CRITICIZED MOSLEMS
WHO PUT MORE STOCK IN OUTWARD APPEARANCES (SUCH AS
TRADITIONAL CLOTHES AND BEARDS FOR MEN AND HEADSCARVES
FOR WOMEN) THAN IN LEADING A MORAL LIE. SUCH A SPEECH
MIGHT SOUND SENSIBLE ENOUGH TOWESTERN EARS, BUT BY ALL
ACCOUNTS IT WAS A DISASER WITH THE LARGELY MALAY
AUDIENCE (MANY OF THE EN IN WHICH, INCLUDING DEPUTY PM
ANWAR, SPORTING RADITIONAL DRESS AND GOATEES AND MOST OF
THE WOMN, INCLUDING ANWAR'S WIFE, WEARING HEADSCARVES).
PRESS COMMENT AND PUBLICDISCUSSION OF THE KEYNOTE
SPEECH, IN PREVIOUS YEARS A PROMINENT ITEM OF PULIC
DEBATE, WAS VIRTUALLY NIL. UMNO MEMBERS QUOTED IN THE
PRESS WERE NON-COMMITTAL, WITH ONE SAYIG ONLY THAT THE
TOPIC REQUIRED SERIOUS THOUGHT. AS ONE ANALYST SAID, NO
ONE BUT MAHATHIR WOULD DRE TOUCH SUCH A SUBJECT.

CONSERVATIVES COUNTER-TTACK
----------------------------

6. (C) UNLIKE UMNO MEMBERS, SOME CONSERVATIVES DID NOT
HESITTE TO EXPRESS THEIR OUTRAGE OVER MAHATHIR'S ATTACK
ON "EXTREMIST" ISLAM. MALAYSIA'S SOLE ISLAMIC PPOSITION
PARTY, PAS, ISSUED A POINT FOR POINT REBUTTAL ON ITS WEB
SITE AND IN THE PARTY NEWSPAPER. THE PAS PARTY NEWSPAPER
ALSO DROPPED A BOMBSHELL BY REPORTING THAT THE PROMINENT
MUFTI OF SELANGOR STATE HAD CALLED MAHATHIR AN APOSTATE.
THOUGH THE MUFTI LATER DENIED THE REPORT, MANY (SECOND
HAND) SOURCES CLAIM THE QUOTATION WAS ACCURATE. ONE
SOURCE NOTED THAT THE SELANGOR MUFTI NOW GETS A WARM
RECEPTION WHEN HE VISITS RELIGIOUS LEADERS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTRY. REPORTEDLY, FRIDAY SERMONS AT MANY MOSQUES HAVE
INCLUDED BOTH OBLIQUE AND DIRECT CRITICISM OF THE
GOVERNMENT. THE POLICE CONFIRMED PUBLICLY THAT ANONYMOUS
"POISON PEN" LITERATURE CRITICIZING THE PM IS CIRCULATING
AT MOSQUES.

GOVERNMENT TIGHTENS SCREWS
--------------------------

7. (U) THE GOVERNMENT HAS RESPONDED FIRMLY TO AGITATION
BY RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES. AFTER THE APOSTATE REPORT,
THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED IT WOULD ENFORCE A PREVIOUSLY
IGNORED BAN ON STREET SALES OF THE PAS NEWSPAPER (UNDER
MALAYSIAN LAW PARTY PUBLICATIONS MAY ONLY BE DISTRIBUTED
TO PARTY MEMBERS). MAHATHIR SAID "SINCE WE FIND THE
TABLOID IS LIBELOUS, WE WILL ENFORCE THE BAN
IMMEDIATELY." ON OCTOBER 14, GOVERNMENT MINISTER IN THE
PM'S DEPARTMENT ABDUL HAMID OTHMAN WARNED MOSLEM GROUPS
NOT TO "UNDERMINE THE GOVERNMENT." HE SAID THE
GOVERNMENT WAS AWARE OF SOME RELIGIOUS LEADERS' ATTEMPTS
TO FOMENT TENSION IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS AND WAS
MONITORING MOSLEM GROUPS. ON OCTOBER 15, THE UMNO-
CONTROLLED STATE GOVERNMENT OF SELANGOR ANNOUNCED THE
TERM OF THE MUFTI OF SELANGOR WOULD NOT BE EXTENDED. THE
CHIEF MINISTER OF SELANGOR SAID THE STATE NEEDED A MUFTI
WHOSE VIEWS "WERE ACCEPTABLE TO ALL." GRUMBLING IN THE
RELIGIOUS COMMUNITY LED ABDUL HAMID TO SAY ON OCTOBER 19
THAT THE "DECISION IS FINAL" AND WAS TAKEN BECAUSE OF THE
MUFTI'S ADVANCED AGE. THE MINISTER'S STATEMENT WAS A BIT
CURIOUS FOR TWO REASONS: 1) CURTAILING OF THE MUFTI'S
TERM WAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE BEEN A STATE, NOT A FEDERAL
DECISION; AND 2) THE PM HIMSELF HAS REPEATEDLY STATED
THAT HE WILL NOT STEP DOWN, THOUGH HE IS ONE YEAR OLDER
THAN THE MUFTI.

VIEWS FROM THE STREET
---------------------

8. (C) MANY MALAYS, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS, SYMPATHIZE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE PM'S VIEWS ON RELIGIOUS ZEALOTRY. THE
BEAUTY PAGEANT CASE STRUCK MANY AS INDEED EXTREME (IT
TURNED OUT THAT RELIGIOUS POLICE HAD BOUGHT TICKETS TO
THE SHOW AND EATEN THE DINNER PROVIDED BEFORE SLAPPING
HANDCUFFS ON THE MALAY WOMEN IN A WAY DESIGNED TO BE
HUMILIATING). PROPONENTS OF CONSERVATIVE ISLAM ARE THUS
A VOCAL MINORITY, THOUGH WITH SUBSTANTIAL RESERVOIRS OF
SUPPORT IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, ON THE EAST COAST, AND AMONG
SOME POCKETS OF RELIGIOUS URBAN DWELLERS. NONETHELESS,
MAHATHIR'S REMARKS AT THE UMNO GENERAL ASSEMBLY RAISED
CONCERNS EVEN AMONG MORE SECULARLY MINDED MALAYS. ONE
PROMINENT UMNO POLITICIAN ASKED US RHETORICALLY: "WHAT
WILL THE PM SAY NEXT, THAT WE SHOULD EAT PORK?" THIS IS
PERHAPS NOT A FAIR CHARACTERIZATION OF MAHATHIR'S VIEWS,
BUT IT SHOWS THE ANXIETY THAT EVEN MODERATES FEEL ABOUT
THE TONE AND DIRECTION OF HIS IDEAS ON "MODERNIZING"
ISLAM.

WOMEN AND ISLAM
---------------

9. (U) ISLAMIC WOMEN ACTIVISTS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE
FULLY BEHIND MAHATHIR. GROUPS LIKE "SISTERS OF ISLAM"
HAVE LONG BEEN AGITATING FOR MANY OF THE SAME REFORMS
MAHATHIR HAS PROPOSED. THE MODERNIZATION OF ISLAMIC
ATTITUDES TOWARD WOMEN AND THE CREATION OF LEGAL AND
SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS THAT BETTER PROTECT THE RIGHTS OF
MOSLEM WOMEN ARE FULLY CONSONANT WITH MAHATHIR'S IDEAS.

COMMENT
-------

10. (C) THE PM HAS BEEN ON A VERBAL RAMPAGE LATELY,
UTTERING BIZARRE REMARKS (LIKE HIS ANTI-SEMITIC COMMENTS
LAST WEEK) THAT ALMOST SEEM PURPOSELY SELF-DESTRUCTIVE.
WHILE WE FOCUS ON MAHATHIR'S ANTI-WESTERN REMARKS, IT IS
WORTH REMEMBERING THAT MAHATHIR LASHES OUT AGAINST
ANYTHING HE DOESN'T LIKE, FROM LITTERBUGS TO "RADICAL
ISLAM." HE CONSISTENTLY ADVOCATES A MODERATE ISLAM
SQUARELY IN LINE WITH U.S. INTERESTS AND VALUES. THE PM,
FOR BETTER OR WORSE, IS NOT AFRAID TO TAKE ON ANYONE,
INCLUDING CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIC GROUPS THAT GENERALLY HAVE
NEGATIVE VIEWS TOWARD THE U.S. MAHATHIR IS ALSO
IMPORTANT AS A VOICE OF MODERATION WITHIN THE
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIC COMMUNITY. THOUGH THE PM'S HEIR
APPARENT, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ANWAR, IS THE PM'S "GOOD
CONSCIENCE," ANWAR HAS NOT PROVEN HE HAS EITHER THE
POLITICAL STANDING OR THE DESIRE TO TAKE ON CONSERVATIVE
ISLAM. ANWAR STARTED HIS CAREER AS A MOSLEM ACTIVIST AND
SEEMS LOATH TO CONFRONT HIS FORMER ASSOCIATES. FOR
EXAMPLE, ANWAR'S REACTION TO THE BEAUTY PAGEANT INCIDENT,
WHICH HAPPENED WHILE THE PM WAS OUT OF THE COUNTRY AND
ANWAR WAS IN CHARGE, WAS MUCH LESS VIGOROUS. MOREOVER,
ANWAR, IF HE DOES BECOME THE NEXT PM, WILL NOT HAVE
MAHATHIR'S ALMOST UNQUESTIONED AUTHORITY. THUS, FOR
POLITICAL REASONS HE MAY BE RELUCTANT TO TAKE STRONG
STANDS THAT UPSET THE VOCAL RELIGIOUS CONSTITUENCY.

IN THE LONG RUN ...
-------------------

11. (C) IN THE LONG RUN DEMOGRAPHICS WILL PROBABLY
DICTATE AN INCREASED ROLE FOR ISLAM IN MALAYSIA. MALAYS
NOW CONSTITUTE 55 PERCENT OF MALAYSIA'S POPULATION.
GOVERNMENT PRO-NATALIST POLICIES FOR MALAYS ARE PREDICTED
TO LEAD TO A 70 PERCENT MALAY MAJORITY BY 2020. SOME
ANALYSTS SAY THAT URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY SECULAR MALAY COMMUNITY.
RECENT EVENTS SHOW THE OPPOSITE ALSO COULD HAPPEN,
HOWEVER. AS THE OUTSIDE WORLD IMPINGES ON TRADITIONAL
MALAY CULTURE, MANY MALAYS SEEM TO BE REACTING BY TURNING
BACK TO THEIR ISLAMIC ROOTS -- AT LEAST IN EXTERNAL FORMS
OF OBSERVANCE. FOR INSTANCE, OVER THE PAST DECADE
NOTICEABLY MORE MALAY WOMEN NOW WEAR HEADSCARVES. THIS
ISLAMIC RESURGENCE, EVEN IN ITS MILD MALAYSIAN FORM,
WORRIES MALAYSIA'S NON-MALAY COMMUNITIES. GIVEN
POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES, IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER
MAHATHIR'S SUCCESSOR (WHETHER ANWAR OR SOMEONE ELSE) WILL
HAVE SUFFICIENT AUTHORITY TO MAKE SURE DIFFERENCES DO NOT
GET OUT OF HAND. WE EXPECT, THEREFORE, ISLAMIC ISSUES
BECOME TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT IN COMING YEARS.

MALOTT

© Scoop Media