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CrisisWatch N°26, 1 October 2005

CrisisWatch N°26, 1 October 2005

Six conflict situations around the world deteriorated in September 2005, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today. Iraq is heading toward de facto partition and full-scale civil war. Daily violence intensified in southern Thailand. Mozambique saw deadly clashes between supporters of the ruling party and a former rebel movement. The International Atomic Energy Agency voted to report Iran to the UN Security Council for violating its obligations under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Tensions worsened in Kyrgyzstan as political groups and criminal elements competed for power. The situation also deteriorated in Cote d'Ivoire where the peace process is on the brink of collapse.

Four conflict situations showed improvement in September 2005. Six-party talks on North Korea ended with a surprise breakthrough as Pyongyang promised to give up nuclear weapons and programs in exchange for energy assistance and security guarantees. In the Philippines, the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front agreed on the major issue of "ancestral domain" in informal talks. There was a positive development in Liberia as the government approved a long-awaited Governance and Economic Management Assistance Programme, following pressure from donor countries. And a general amnesty was announced for political crimes in Mauritania. Positive developments in the Aceh peace process in Indonesia were offset by bombs in Bali being reported 1 October as CrisisWatch went to press.

For October 2005, CrisisWatch identifies Iraq, Nepal and Somalia as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month. Nepal is also a Conflict Resolution Opportunity.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY

September 2005 TRENDS

Deteriorated Situations
Cote d'Ivoire, Iran, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Mozambique, Thailand

Improved Situations
Liberia, Mauritania, North Korea, Philippines

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Lebanon, Macedonia, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (Russia), Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

October 2005 WATCHLIST

Conflict Risk Alert
Iraq, Nepal, Somalia

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Nepal

* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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