Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Off to an Early Start?

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Off to an Early Start?

State College, Pa. 20 April 2011 - AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring an area north of the Leeward Islands for possible tropical development over the next several days.

Although rare, tropical storms have formed this early in the season in as recent as 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana was named on April 20.

At present, the area being watched is non-tropical, but rather an upper-level pocket of cool air. This area, known as a closed low, was generating a broad region of clouds, showers and thunderstorms.

With time, it is possible that the disturbed weather may work down to the lower levels of the atmosphere and travel over warmer waters, becoming what meteorologists call a warm-core system, or a tropical depression or storm.

Most likely this will never be a totally warm core feature, but it could gain some tropical features and could be dubbed a subtropical storm in the days ahead. For now the water is too cool over this area.

One part of the feature is probably going to be driven off to the northwest, away from any land areas.

However, there is a chance that part of this mass of showers and thunderstorms, the low-level part, tropical or not, may take a more westward or southwestward track.

Rain Needed in the Tropics

While this system is not likely to become a powerhouse in terms of wind, it could bring some rain along the way.

Depending on its overall size and path, this would be the first significant rain in months for portions of the Bahamas. The northern Caribbean Islands would be more of a long shot.

Nassau and Freeport in the Bahamas have received less than 1.50 inches of rain this month. Both locations have received less than 50 percent of their normal rainfall since the 1st of the year. So it has been an extra-dry dry season.

Some rain could even wander all the way to South Florida with this slow-moving feature or perhaps a broad southeasterly flow of moisture.

Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski cautions, "A ridge of high pressure would have to get out of the way first."

Portions of South Florida are in the same dry-docket boat as the Bahamas and other islands near and south of the Tropic of Cancer in the rainfall department

Miami has fared a little better than most locations in South Florida, but rain is still below average since Jan. 1.

According to meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "If this system comes into being and tracks far enough to the south and west, the rainy season could begin a few weeks early for folks in South Florida and some of the islands."

Given the uncertainty of the track and size of this system at this time, it probably is not worth getting your hopes up for rain at this point.

It certainly does not seem to be a system to fear or alter plans for at this juncture.

Unfortunately, rain from this particular system would not reach as far west as Texas and northern Mexico where it is desperately needed.

A Sign of Things to Come?

In light that the first tropical storm occurred early the 2003 season, that year also delivered multiple landfalls of tropical systems into the U.S. These systems included Tropical Storm Bill, Hurricane Claudette, Tropical Storm Grace, Tropical Storm Henri and Hurricane Isabel.

Ana was the only tropical cyclone on record to form during April.

However, if the past is any indicator of what is to come this season, you cannot go by a tropical storm formation in April as a serious guide. There are many other factors to consider.

The same unusually warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, helping to fuel an already busy and deadly severe weather season, could be a more serious draw, serving as both birthing ground and fuel depot for the tropical cyclone season this year.

There is some correlation to big tornado years in the U.S. with more tropical cyclone landfalls in the U.S. compared to average.

Taking a more simple approach to the landfall aspect, the U.S. has had very little direct hits over the past two years.

The law of averages would suggest that the U.S. is due for a bigger year in dealing with the landfall of tropical storms and/or hurricanes.

With the current budget issues facing the nation, the last thing anyone would need is a couple of major hurricane landfalls and damage.

By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Expert Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

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