World Video | Defence | Foreign Affairs | Natural Events | Trade | NZ in World News | NZ National News Video | NZ Regional News | Search

 


Romney Could Win Florida, Early Voting in Miami Shows

Romney Could Win Florida, Early Voting in Miami Shows

By Sherwood Ross

A survey of voters who cast early ballots in the Miami area of Florida suggests that Republican Mitt Romney may win this key “swing state” in the Nov. 6th election. Four years ago, Floridians helped elect Obama.

Where four years ago 67 of the 100 Miami early voters I interviewed as they came out of the polls told me  they favored Obama, over the past several days at the same polling place, only 54 of 100 voters said they favored Obama. This is a significant drop in Obama’s strength. Traditionally, Democrats must come out of South Florida with a commanding margin in order to win the state’s 29 electoral votes.

The decline in voter enthusiasm for Obama was visible. In a page one story in today’s New York Times, the reduced size of Obama’s crowds and their enthusiasm was also mentioned.

Democrats traditionally do well in the big cities of Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando and Tampa while the Republicans do best in the northern, central, and western parts of the state that are largely rural and agricultural, plus metropolitan Jacksonville, in the northeast.  

In 2008, Obama got 4,282,000 votes in Florida compared to Republican John McCain’s 4,045,000, or 50.9% compared to 48.1%.  So Obama got all the State’s 27 electoral votes. Because Florida’s population has gone up, this year the state has 29 electoral votes. Only California, with 55, and Texas, with 38, have more electoral votes than Florida today.

I found Obama’s support significantly reduced this year compared to 2008. In that election this reporter found seven Republican voters who were switching to the Democrats but this week there were more Democratic voters switching to Romney than the other way around. Four of the switching voters interviewed had voted for Obama in 2008 but switched to Romney, compared with just two Republican voters in 2008 who switched to Obama in this election. Several voters who switched from Obama told me they blamed him for the condition of the economy.

The polling place where I interviewed voters coming out of the polls was located in the public library of the well-to-do suburb of Coral Gables, just west of Miami. The city contains many fine mansions, an upscale shopping center, and the University of Miami, a private university whose students come largely from affluent families around the country,  Latin America, and Asia..

Slightly more women voted than men and my sample showed them to be the greatest source of Obama’s strength. By contrast, white males were the greatest source of Romney’s strength. All the African-Americans in the survey, 6%, voted for Obama. Young voters casting ballots for the first time, 5% of my sample, favored Obama four to one.

Florida elections traditionally have been close, meaning the state can “swing” either way, Democratic or Republican. In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won the White House by beating Democrat Al Gore by 537 popular votes in Florida in a bitterly contested election rife with charges of vote-stealing and denial of voting opportunities to minority voters who vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

Professional pollsters are saying this presidential election is too close to call and that since the first Obama-Romney debate the campaign’s momentum has shifted to Romney. Obama’s lead in states such as Pennsylvania, traditionally Democratic, has shrunk. Currently, the Cable News Network poll puts Romney ahead of Obama nationally by 49% to 48%; Rasmussen Reports poll put Romney ahead by two points, 49% to 47%; and the ABC/Washington Post poll finds Romney with a one-point lead, 49% to 48%.

Based on my sampling of early voters, it appears that Obama is still slightly ahead in South Florida but by a significantly reduced margin compared to 2008. The question is whether his narrow lead here will be sufficient to enable him to carry the state. I tend to doubt it.  At this point I can only guess about the outcome but it appears that Romney has the momentum to carry Florida. Whether Obama’s “presidential” actions during Hurricane Sandy----which pretty much washed Romney out of the headlines----will impact the outcome remains to be seen. Ditto for the impact of the last minute Republican TV advertising blitz.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
World Headlines

 

As Health Needs Rise In Somalia, Funding Hits New Low

As health needs rise in Somalia, funding hits new low, cutting off 1.5 million from care – UN More>>

Need To End Violence Against Children In Conflict

‘We should be outraged’ more not being done to end violence against children in conflict – UNICEF chief More>>

On Mandela Day, UN Joins Call To Promote Community Service

Nelson Mandela, then Deputy President of the African National Congress of South Africa, raises his fist in the air while addressing the Special Committee Against Apartheid in the General Assembly Hall. UN Photo/P. Sudhakaran More>>

Some $3.2 Billion Needed For Ebola Recovery Efforts

Some $3.2 billion needed for Ebola recovery efforts in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – UN More>>

World Day: UN Spotlights Plight Of Vulnerable Populalations

Syrian refugees fleeing the fighting near the Syrian city of Kobani wait in a holding area before boarding buses in Turkey (September 2014). Photo: UNHCR /I. Prickett More>>

Afghanisatan: Direct Talks Between Government And Taliban

The United Nations Security Council has welcomed the recently held direct talks between Afghan Government and Taliban representatives as a step towards “peace and reconciliation” in the region. More>>

Eradicating World Hunger By 2030

Agriculture workers collect carrots on a farm in Chimaltenango, Guatemala. Photo: World Bank/Maria Fleischmann More>>

Bangladesh: Flood Leads To UN Agency Providing Food Relief

Anwar Hossain unloads cartons of High Energy Biscuits from a pickup truck and transfers them to a distribution center in Kawar Khop union, Ramu upazila, Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Photo: WFP/Kamrul Mithon More>>

Ban Says World Must Act Now To Curb Climate Change

Alarmed by melting glacier in Norway, Ban says world must 'act now' to curb climate change More>>

UN Spotlights Data And Technology As Key To Sustainability

The importance of quality data and cutting edge information communication technologies (ICTs) is increasingly critical to the shaping of the future sustainable development agenda, the head of the United Nations Development Programme ( UNDP ) confirmed today. More>>

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
World
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news