The Oft-Predicted Fickle Syrian ‘Tipping Point’ Has Tipped
Can Washington and Her Allies Block Syria’s Reconciliation Efforts?
The Oft-Predicted Fickle Syrian ‘Tipping Point’ Has Tipped
by FRANKLIN LAMB
Damascus -- This observer lost count more than a
year ago of the sheer
number of predictions by analysts
and lobbyists that the “tipping point”
signaling the
Assad government’s collapse was a sure thing and
would
happen any time now. “It’s just a matter of
days, not weeks” President
Obama declared back in
2011.
Based on personal observations and interviews with a
fair number of
informed people who actually live in
Syria, as opposed to the Zionist think
tank armchair
“expert” variety, this observer concedes that
prognosticators
are finally right. In point of fact, I
have concluded over the past few months
that the long
elusive “tipping point” in Syria has indeed been
reached
and the momentum has shifted decisively in this
embattled.
But not the tipping point that the rebel
promoters were hoping for, including
the NATO
countries.
Rather, the momentum here has tipped in favor
of the current regime due
to its capacity to maintain a
slowly rising level of popular support, and
good
relations with key foreign supporters during the current run
up to next
year’s Presidential election. Then, it will
be up to the Syrian voters to
decide who stays, goes,
and/or joins in their next government.
I base my tentative conclusions, on among others, the following factors.
The
Syrian population here is so tired, so exhausted and beaten
down,
the killing has gone on for so long, and the Syrian
people, like Iranians and
others I have observed, appear
to exhibit a distinctly noticeable, profound
and almost
moral and religious bond with their countrymen and
they
personally feel acutely their country’s suffering.
Such that people on the
streets are very shocked and
incredulous at what is going on and many in
fact feel
less strongly about either side in the conflict and just
want the
slaughter to end and for life to return to
'normal' even without deep
revolutionary-across the
board-changes for now.
Two days ago mortars hit the campus
of Damascus University. By the
grace of God there were no
casualties-this time. But students report that on
average
about six mortars or explosive devices hit Damascus every
week.
While unreported in the media, the attack on
Damascus University where
the student body has pretty
much stayed on the sidelines during the current
crisis,
is an example of the nerve shattering recognition here that
rebels can
more or less fire mortars or rockets at will
into Damascus, from miles away.
And these terrorist
attacks are very difficult to stop and constitute an
ever
present danger for Damascenes. The relatively
frequently used small US
M252 81mm mortar that can be
carried in a deep pocket or under a shirt
when strapped,
has a bit more than a one mile range (1609 meters).
Larger
ones can travel several miles when set at between
45 and 85 degrees to the
ground according to military
sources.
Also, according to students, about five days ago
the Tishereen War Panorama
Museum was hit with four or
five rebel projectiles. The military museum
was built to
celebrate the October 1973 Yom Kippur War (“Tishreen”
means
“October” in Arabic), and this main tourist
attraction is only two miles
northeast of the Old City in
Damascus.
One also experiences here an attitude that the
Assad government is showing
signs of learning some
serious lessons about the direction that Syria must
move
in. While number estimates are difficult, increasing number
of Syrians
appears to believe that the current regime is
the best solution -- at least for
now. For now, meaning,
until next year’s election.
One also notices in Syria
these days that people appear (maybe influenced
a bit by
the recent spring weather) somewhat more optimistic that
things are
getting "better" -- warmer weather means less
need for mazot (heating oil),
people are car-pooling more
to decrease dependence on limited benzene,
some flour,
still often difficult to find due to rebel burning fields,
theft from
supply warehouses and Turkish-condoned
destruction of a majority of
manufacturing enterprises in
Aleppo, is appearing to a degree, brought in
from
bordering countries. Many of the shortages -- partly caused
by the
US-led sanctions -- are for now somehow less
severe due to the ingenuity of
the Syrian people and the
government too has been employing some
shrewd
countermeasures.
This observer along with others
has been critical of the Lebanese government
for not
doing more for the Syrian and Palestinian refugees forced
into their
country by the current crisis. While still a
serious problem, there has finally
developed a life-line
of sorts operating from Lebanon into Syria. More
consumer
goods now move officially from the Masnaa
Syrian-Lebanese
border crossing where vehicles are
checked, and much more food stuffs and
essential goods
arrive into Syria via many other routes -- smuggling
routes
established between the two countries when the
French created Lebanon
back in 1943.
From Chtoura to
Majdal and Anjar, one comes across lines of massive
fuel
tankers as well as trucks loaded with Bekaa valley
vegetables like onions,
potatoes, carrots, squash,
radishes, wheat, barley, lentil, beets,
zucchini,
cabbage, cauliflower and beans of different
varieties. According to my
favorite driver, Ahmad,
government’s regulations require that these
large
vehicles line up until 4 p.m. so as not to jam the
narrow, potholed and
frankly dangerous cliff-hanging
roads.
Even Ahmad has become involved in the import
business. No longer does
he transport up to five
passengers. Only me who rides “shotgun.” This
is
because he fills the trunk of his taxi and the back seat
with about a dozen
tanks of pressurized cooking gas.
Ahmad pays $16 per filled tank in Lebanon
and sells them
in Syria for $50 each. I am not sure why he needs me to
ride
with him and why he gives me such a great price, but
having an American on
board seems to help in some way
with some of the checkpoints. Maybe the
novelty distracts
the soldiers somehow from his cargo and they decide
to
cut him some slack.
For about a decade, starting at
about age seven, this observer would almost
never miss a
Saturday matinee at the Victory theater in Milwaukie,
Oregon.
I have known since that time that riding shotgun,
whether on a stage coach
or covered wagon, was not the
best seat because you might catch an arrow
from “wild
Injuns on the warpath” or a bullet from road
bandits.
Things have not changed so much. Riding shotgun
from Beirut to Damascus
with a dozen tanks of pressurized
gas invites instant immolation from a
snipers bullet
fired from some hill overlooking the main highway. Trying
to
make a joke, my driver reminds me from time to time
that the US M24
specially adapted Remington Model 700
sniper rifle, some of which are in the
hands of rebels
around here, has a supposed range of more than two
miles
and one bullet into one tank and it’s all over
for the both of us.
More seriously, regular views are
expressed in Syria about the support
levels for the
current regime vs. support for the rebels. Admittedly based
on
nothing very scientific, this observer tends to agree
with what he has been
hearing from a cross section of the
local population that the regime has the
fairly strong
backing of around 30% of the population. Less than half of
that
for the rebels. Syrian minorities, including
Christians, Shi'a and Alawites,
among others, cast with
the regime because they are afraid of the
Wahabist/
Salafist jihadi types and the breaking up of
their country.
One teenager who I asked why she supports
the current regime explained
that the Assad regime is
doing their best and despite the rising prices that
her
parents chronically complain about she is grateful
that, "despite all the rising
prices the government has
not allowed the cost of telephone service to
increase so
I can chat with my friends just like before!” The kid has
a point
because during this crisis and all the rumors
ricocheting around people are
staying in contact with
loved ones more than ever it seems.
A bit more than 50% do
not seem to express firm support for either side and
just
want the killing to stop and for some sort of normalcy to
return, while
at the same time expressing an opinion
something like, “how did our country
get into this
mess. Let the foreigners go home and we can deal with
our
problems ourselves.” Tragically, this plea does not
appear to be acted on
anytime soon in Washington DC,
Paris, London or Brussels, given the new
pledges this
week of more “non-lethal” aid to the rebel
factions.
If ever there were meaning- and logic-destroying
non-sequiturs as in the
past few days it is hard to
remember when. Faced with the tipping point
moving away
from the foreign forces and toward the Syrian government
and
majority population, the “Friends of Syria” has
stretched beyond recognition
the meaning of ordinary
phrases like “defensive APC’s," "non-lethal
devices
to help pinpoint the locations of the Syrian Arab
Army troops,” “weapons
to protect the civilian
population,” as well as “humanitarian sanctions”
that
supposedly but don't exempt food and medicines. In
fact all of the new
Friends of Syria “breakthrough
assistance” targets Syria’s civilian population
and
all are lethal given the uses to which they are
put.
History instructs us that as a result of American
wars, from Vietnam to the
Middle East -- that it is the
civilian population who will pay the price of the
Obama
administration’s just announced “humanitarian
assistance” to
selected groups in Syria. This history
is well known here by Syrians who
understand well the
strange paradox of US Secretary of State John
Kerry’s
announcement this week of Washington's desire
to speed up the political
process aimed at ending the
crisis in Syria by backing the armed Wahabist/
Salafist
jihadi groups in the country.
This week’s US and
European decisions to back Syria's rebels with direct
aid
will only lead to more bloodshed and encourage
"terrorism" in the war-torn
country, according to two
Sheiks from Syria’s largest tribe who held
court
recently during tea in the lobby of the Dama Rose
Hotel here.
What Washington fears, according to the same
interlocutor from the Russian
embassy who spoke with this
observer for nearly two hours, is the
confirmation that
the Syrian opposition is ready to immediately enter
into
negotiations with the Syrian government without
preconditions and that
President Assad’s departure or
even his future status will not be part of the
process.
The Russians' belief that the rebels are finally coming
around to
a more realistic approach is gaining support
from the population here as well
as military and
political players. This is more than anathema to
Washington
and its allies.
For them it is not less than
catastrophic and will not be allowed despite
NATO’s
rhetoric to the contrary. Thus the new fake proposals. The
new
“Non-lethal aid” has been designed to somehow
reverse the “tipping point”
that seems to be taking
place. These aggressive actions rather than, for
example,
genuine humanitarian aid given to the 11 neutral
international
NGO’s operating across Syria, or serious
pressure on all sides to show up at
the dialogue table,
is certain to prolong the conflict and condemn
countless
more Syrians to death.
Franklin Lamb is doing research in Syria and is reachable c/o fplamb@gmail.com
ends