Egypt After the Coup...

Egypt After the Coup...

According to well-connected Washington sources, including a
Congressional staffer whose job description includes following political
events in Egypt, once it became evident that Egyptian President Mohamed
Morsi might well be ousted by Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed
Forces (SCAF), it did not take Mohamed Mustafa ElBaradei, the Sharia legal
scholar, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, and for 12 years (1997-2009) the Director
General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) very long to
contact the Washington, DC law firm of Patton Boggs.

That was this past Tuesday. The very next day, ElBaradei’s representatives
reportedly also made contact with the Conference of Presidents of Major
American Jewish Organizations which claims to represent the 52 largest
American Jewish groups. ElBaradei, perhaps the current front-runner to
replace his long-time nemesis, Mohamed Morsi, moved fast to organize some
key allies in Cairo and Washington to pick-up where his earlier failed
Presidential campaign left off in January 2011.

Patton Boggs, the K Street, NW Washington DC law firm, which last year had
550 lawyers and 120 lobbyists and is arguably the firm closest to the White
House and most likely to secure for its clients what they want from the
approximately 5000 key decision makers in the US Capitol. The other nearly
11,800 federally registered lobbyists in Washington (there were only 300 as
recently as when Lyndon Johnson was US President) lag far behind Patton
Boggs in terms of political influence.

Patton Boggs new client wants the Pentagon and the White House to
squeeze Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) who deposed
President Morsi and arrange for himself to be appointed the interim President
of Egypt pending early elections.
What ElBaradei’s representatives are reportedly offering the White House in
exchange for Obama’s discrete assistance, is that the 1979 Camp David
Accord, including all its elements, will be observed. In addition, Egypt under
ElBaradei can be expected to toughen its stance on Iran’s nuclear program
including publicly adjusting some of his pre-2012 comments on Iran that the
White House and Israel criticized as being “soft on the Islamic Republic.”
Also being promised by ElBaradei’s agents is that security cooperation
between Egypt and Israel will grow stronger. ElBaradei’s objective is to secure
Barack Obama’s personal support during his jockeying for the expected
forthcoming Egyptian presidential election.

Once again the Obama administration was caught by surprise as the “Arab
spring,” still in its infancy, increasingly portends ill for Western-installed
potentates in all the Sykes-Picot artificially created “countries.” According to
Congressional insiders, Obama reportedly has some doubts. Those following
events in Egypt will likely recall his praise of Morsi after the two former
University Professors had a chance to sit together and get to know one
another. “I like this man,” Obama reportedly told some staff members, “he
thinks like me.”

When Morsi was deposed, Obama lamented: "We are deeply concerned
by the decision of the Egyptian armed forces to remove President Morsi and
suspend the Egyptian constitution. I now call on the Egyptian military to
move quickly and responsibly to return full authority back to a democratically
elected civilian government as soon as possible through an inclusive and
transparent process, and to avoid any arbitrary arrests of President Morsi
and his supporters."
Meanwhile, the SCAF, at the urging of ElBaradei’s team, is paying sweet lip
service regarding Obama’s expressed concerns. Shortly before the words
were uttered by Minister of defense, Brig. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the State
Department received a copy of the speech with the first paragraph
highlighted to assuage Obama: “The armed forces will not interfere in the
realm of politics or governance and will not overstep the role that it is
assigned in a democracy, which stems from the desire of the people.” Those
words sound good also in Foggy Bottom.
Patton Boggs talking points to the Congress and Obama Administration are
that President Morsi had more than a year to show progress to the Egyptian
people, with both institutional political legitimacy derived from their election
victories, and that he enjoyed strong popular support when he assumed full
power from the armed forces in June 2012 but that he failed badly and the
new government -- hopefully led by ElBaradei -- will now act more efficiently
to move the country towards credible and legitimate institutions of
governance.
ElBaradei’s campaign, as reported in the July 4th edition of the New York
Times also worked hard to convince the White House of what he called the
necessity of forcibly ousting President Morsi, presenting several arguments
that included documentation that Morsi had bungled the country’s transition
to an inclusive democracy and wasted a year without following thru on any
of his pledges.

Some Congressional analysts believe that one of Morsi's biggest mistakes
resulted from a deliberate policy of accommodation and not, as is commonly
believed, confrontation. He allowed the military to retain its corporate
autonomy and remain beyond civilian control. Furthermore, he included in
his cabinet a large number of non-Muslim Brotherhood figures who
abandoned him within months when the going got tough, thus presenting to
the public an image that the government was on the verge of collapse.

Some have suggested that Morsi should have brought the military to heel
soon after he assumed power and was at the height of his popularity, just as
the military was at its lowest point in public perception. Monday morning
quarterbacking is now rampant to explain Morsi’s failures.

What the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohammad Morsi’s supporters do in the
coming days at Tahir Square and across Egypt will likely determine the route
and the ultimate success of ElBaradei growing juggernaut.
Meanwhile, as of today, it appears that President Barack Obama may well
help usher Mohammad ElBaredei into Egypt’s Presidential Palace. If the
Obama administration has success there will be joy in Tel Aviv, and at Patton
Boggs' victory party, where a good number of the invited guests will almost
certainly be carefully vetted by AIPAC.

ends

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