World Video | Defence | Foreign Affairs | Natural Events | Trade | NZ in World News | NZ National News Video | NZ Regional News | Search

 


Researchers’ model predicted CAR atrocities

Researchers at the University of Otago and the University of Sydney predicted the current atrocities in the Central African Republic (CAR), based on their own forecasting model.

The forecasting model, which uses determining factors such as political instability, state-led discrimination, infant mortality rates and neighbouring state conflicts, places CAR at the top of its list of at-risk states for genocide/politicide for the period 2011-2015. The forecasts are based on data from years up to 2010, when the project began.

Researchers from the Atrocity Forecasting Project include Dr Charles Butcher from the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Otago.

Dr Butcher says models for predicting genocide and politicide could help prevent these instances of mass violence.

“Changes in the number of soldiers under arms, the presence or absence of an election, and the introduction and removal of peacekeeping forces are also factors in our model that place the Central African Republic at higher risk,” Dr Butcher says.

“As far as we know, we are the only ones to rank the Central African Republic as the most at-risk country, or even have it towards the top at all.”

In recent months, the UN’s Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide has issued a warning regarding CAR, while violence targeted against civilians by both sides in the civil war has continued to grow in scale and brutality.

“The findings of our model justify very close monitoring and diplomatic attention on the countries at highest risk of the sort of violence we are currently seeing in the Central African Republic,” Dr Butcher says.

The aim of the project—which produces the longest-term predictions of its kind—is to provide an early-warning short list of countries most at risk of genocide, that assists government and non-government bodies in identifying potential mass atrocities while providing enough time for these groups to put preventive measures in place.

“One of our primary aims was to provide policy-makers with an early warning system that complemented shorter term monitoring and peacebuilding efforts. A key aspect of our model is that it identifies states at risk of genocide over the next five years,” he says.

The Atrocity Forecasting Project has already gained the attention of influential bodies, having given presentations on the forecasting model to relevant policy groups in Washington DC, Berlin, Paris, and Canberra, to a United Nations conference, and the International Crisis Group.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
World Headlines

 

Ebola Cases Reaching Record Low

Highly contaminated waste is removed from an Ebola Treatment Unit and carried with caution to a disposal area, where it will be fed into an incinerator that burns it into ashes. Photo: WHO/R. Sørensen More>>

South Sudan: Pervasive Violence Against Healthcare

Juba, South Sudan, July 1, 2014 - Violence in hospitals and the destruction of medical facilities are denying medical services to many of South Sudan 's most vulnerable people, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said today in a report, South Sudan Conflict: ... More>>

ALSO:

  • UN News - UNESCO chief denounces killing of journalists in South Sudan
  • Increasing Demand For Refined Products Will Increase Prices

    In last week's article I posted a chart from the International Energy Agency'srecent Oil Market Report that shows global demand for refined products catching up to supply by the 3rd quarter of this year. My opinion is that all of the analysts who are now ... More>>

    ALSO:

    Terrorist Attack On Hotel In Libyan Capital

    27 January 2015 – The United Nations Security Council today condemned in the strongest terms the deadly terrorist attack against the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, Libya, and underlined the need to bring the perpetrators, financiers and sponsors of such ... More>>

    ALSO:

    Malawi In Urgent Need After Intense Flooding

    Torrential rains in Malawi have caused dozens of deaths, with hundreds of people still missing. Photo: UNDP/Arjan van de Merwe More>>

    Lack Of Funding Hampering Aid To Syria

    Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator Kyung-wha Kang briefs the Security Council on the situation in Syria. UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe More>>

    Spy Agency CSE Is Monitoring Our Private Online Activities

    Breaking - Spy agency CSE is monitoring our private online activities on a massive scale and sharing sensitive data with other governments More>>

    UN ‘blue Helmet’ Killed Near Lebanon-Israel Cross-Fire

    28 January 2015 – A United Nations peacekeeper with the UN Interim Force in Lebanon ( UNIFIL ) was killed today near the border with Israel but the precise cause of death is as yet undetermined and remains the subject of investigation, according ... More>>

    ALSO:


    Get More From Scoop

     
     
     
     
     
    World
    Search Scoop  
     
     
    Powered by Vodafone
    NZ independent news