Data Flash (New Zealand)

Key points

The number of new dwelling consents issued increased 3.7% mom in February following a 5.7% mom rise in January, but was still 6.9% lower than a year earlier.

Non-residential building consents with a value of $172m were issued in February. The value of non-residential consents issued in the three months to February was 3.3% higher than a year earlier.

Commentary

A further rise in the number of dwelling consents issued is consistent with the recent lift in secondary house sales and robust levels of consumer confidence, the latter helped along by falling mortgage rates. However, as the chart below illustrates, net migrant outflows have increased sharply over the past three months, possibly reflecting the anticipation of the tighter restrictions on the rights of New Zealanders moving to Australia (a net 5000 people moved to Australia in February alone). If sustained, these outflows will continue to exert a significant drag on the housing market.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist (64) 9 351 1376