

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2004/S00223/xe-data-update-nz-treasury-releases-economic-scenarios-for-lockdown.htm

XE Data Update - NZ Treasury Releases Economic Scenarios For Lockdown

Tuesday, 14 April 2020, 9:48 am
Press Release: XE Money Transfer

The New Zealand Treasury released its economic scenarios for lockdown. The key points are:

The pandemic is a ‘once in a century’ public health shock having a profound impact on economic and financial systems around the world and in New Zealand.
There is a high level of uncertainty on the path the NZ economy will take.
All scenarios begin with a deep contraction in activity in the June quarter
When the public health risks diminish, and containment measure here and internationally de-escalate, the global and domestic economy will begin to recover, supported by large fiscal packages and the significant easing in monetary policy -timing and pace of recover is unclear.
NZ GDP to fall at least 13% in year to March 2021 and could fall as much as 33%
Peaks in the unemployment rate will be around 13% if the lockdown remains at 4 weeks
If lockdown extended the unemployment rate could reach between 17.5 to 26%
If lockdown stays at 4 weeks, and the Government provides extra support for businesses, the unemployment rate can stay below 10% and return to 5% by 2021
Forecast show the NZ economy can bounce back to be NZD$70 billion larger by 2024 than in 2019.
World outlook is also highly uncertain

The

NZD little changed in immediate response

Current indicative levels are:

Please call for further information or pricing.

Below is the link to the complete Treasury report: