Parrot Analytics Paramount Global Earnings Note: Q1 2023
Saturday, 13 May 2023, 6:50 pm Press Release: Parrot Analytics
Paramount Global continues to face the same fundamental
issues as its fellow legacy media conglomerates: how to
balance declining but still profitable linear businesses
with scaling a flagship streaming service that is deep in
the red.
In terms of demand for and value of its
content, here is how Paramount Global and Paramount+ stack
up in some key measures of audience demand as of Q1
2023:
Paramount Global US Corporate Demand Share:
12.5%, 3rd place
Paramount+ US Total Catalog Demand
Share: 9.2%, 6th place
Paramount+ US Originals
Demand Share: 6.0% (record high), 7th
place
Paramount+ Global Originals Demand Share: 4.9%
(record high), 6th place
Paramount+ continues to
rise in both streaming original and on-platform demand
share, but the service has not fully leveraged Paramount
Global’s valuable library into a top tier general
entertainment streaming service in terms of demand and
subscribers.
Of the 25 most in-demand shows
available to US consumers on Paramount+ in Q1 2023, 21 were
owned or produced in house — hinting at the value of the
CBS and Nickelodeon catalogs in particular. However, of
those 21 series, only seven were exclusively available on
Paramount+, meaning a majority of the platform's top 25 most
in-demand series are unlikely to be major subscriber
acquisition or retention drivers.
Of the above
top 25, five were Paramount+ Originals — all five either
Star Trek or Taylor Sheridan series. In fact, Star
Trek and Taylor Sheridan series made up a combined 43.9%
of the audience demand for all Paramount+ Originals with US
audiences in 2022. Expanding these franchises must be a key
strategy for Paramount+ moving forward.
Paramount+ has
been one of the fastest growing major streamers in the last
two years in both audience demand share and subscribers, but
it is still far behind the industry leaders. It’s hard to
see how the platform can fully scale without Paramount
Global clawing back the streaming rights of its high value
linear library, led by CBS procedurals, Nickelodeon content,
and Yellowstone. But scaling this way would mean
giving up hundreds of millions of dollars in licensing
revenue at a time when Wall Street values profits over
subscriber growth.
Corporate Demand Share: US,
Q1 2023
Corporate
demand share can assess which companies have the most
valuable content to license. This analysis can effectively
help value a conglomerate’s legacy and library content in
aggregate.
As it has since the Warner Bros.
Discovery merger went through in April 2022, Paramount
Global remains in third place in this category, ahead of
NBCUniversal and Netflix.
Paramount Global’s
corporate demand share sat at 12.5% in Q1 2023, up from
12.0% in Q4 2022.
This chart shows the benefits of
potential M&A activity in the near future. While
broadcast networks would complicate a potential union with
NBCUniversal, Paramount Global and Warner Bros. Discovery
would combine for 29.7% corporate demand share, dwarfing
Disney’s 20.0%.
Streaming Originals
Demand Share: Global, Q1 2023
Paramount+
hit new record highs of demand share for streaming originals
in both the US and worldwide in Q1 2023.
Globally,
Paramount+ hit 4.9% in Q1 2023, a record. Since the March
2021 rebrand, Paramount+’s global original share has grown
from 3.2% to 4.9%. Paramount+ is in sixth place globally,
ahead of HBO Max (4.5%) and just behind Hulu
(5.1%).
Since rebranding as Paramount+ in Q 2021,
Paramount+’s US originals demand share has grown from 3.8%
to 6.0%. With US audiences, the platform sits just behind
HBO Max (6.1%), and is a few new hit series away from
overtaking Hulu (7.0%).
Paramount+
Franchise Demand
What
content has been driving Paramount+'s demand share and
subscriber growth? It has largely been original series from
two franchises: Star Trek and the unofficial
‘Taylor Sheridan Universe.’
The two franchises
accounted for 43.9% of the US demand for Paramount+
Originals in 2022.
Expanding these universes should
be an essential component of Paramount+’s growth
strategy.
The Taylor Sheridan universe is a rare
commodity: a truly home grown streaming era franchise that
did not come from pre-existing IP.
Sheridan’s
Tulsa King achieved exceptional global demand in Q1
2023, putting it in the top 0.2% of all TV series across all
platforms worldwide. This validates Paramount’s investment
in Taylor Sheridan, and suggests that the international
appeal of Sylvester Stallone remains strong.
While
these two franchises have little audience overlap, they
should both do a good job of retaining their core fanbases
as Paramount+ subscribers, a necessity for any major
competitor as the streaming era enters its next
phase.
Top 25 Breakdown: Originals vs
Non-Originals
While
demand for original content drives subscription growth,
library content is key for customer retention, an
increasingly crucial element of all streaming strategies as
the market matures and consumers are offered more choice and
easier ways to cancel than ever.
This chart shows
why library content is so important as a subscriber
retention driver for majors SVODs, showing how reliant most
streamers are on TV series that aren't platform
originals.
Paramount+ is doing a better job of
promoting its original series than most of its
competitors.
In Q1 2023, Peacock (Poker Face)
and Hulu (The Orville) had just one original each in
their 25 most in-demand on platform
series.