Business confidence has surged to its strongest level since tracking began in 2022, with negative sentiment dropping 19 points and optimism nearly doubling in just three months.

Simon Bridges, CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber, says February’s results mark a decisive shift. “This is a material turnaround. After a long stretch of businesses feeling battered, this is a real lift in mood.”

Just 25% of businesses now describe overall confidence as negative or very negative, down from 44% in November, while positive sentiment has doubled from 16% to 32%. Businesses aren’t euphoric, Bridges says, “but they’re more confident about the direction of travel.”

Over half of businesses expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months, broadly in line with November. That improved mood is now showing in trading conditions.

The share reporting performance below expectations has fallen 11 points, from 47% to 36%. Revenue down year-on-year has dropped nine points and revenue up has lifted eight points. More than half expect revenue to increase over the next year, broadly in line with November.

“We’re starting to see conditions firm. Confidence is leading performance, which is often how recovery phases begin.”

Hiring intentions have softened, with 41% planning to hire, down six points, suggesting businesses are optimistic but cautious. At the same time, more are lifting prices, with two-thirds raising or planning to raise prices — up five points since November.

Cost pressure remains deeply embedded, with 78% still expecting costs to rise — down four points since November. “Confidence is improving, but cost pressure hasn’t gone away,” Bridges says.

Inflationary pressure and interest rates have surged back up the concern list, rising from 29% in November to 44% in February — a 15-point increase, reflecting renewed uncertainty around the interest rate outlook. By contrast, concern about productivity and growth has eased from 43% to 36%.

Consumer confidence and demand remains the top issue overall, cited by 55% of businesses, though slightly down on November. “Until households feel confident spending, businesses will continue to feel that constraint.”

Energy affordability and late payments are also improving, with fewer businesses reporting energy costs as unaffordable and fewer experiencing customers paying late. “These are encouraging signs. Some of the edge is coming off.”

Bridges says February’s results show genuine momentum, but not a finished recovery. “This is the strongest confidence reading we’ve seen since 2022. That matters. But recovery doesn’t run on sentiment alone. Businesses are positioning for growth. Now we need policy settings that reinforce it — disciplined spending, a focus on productivity, and measures that support demand. There’s belief returning to the business community. The job now is to keep that belief building.”

Key Findings (Nov 2025 → Feb 2026)

Business Confidence

• Negative sentiment: 44% → 25% (–19 pts)
• Positive sentiment: 16% → 32% (+16 pts)

Economic Outlook (next 12 months)

• Remain the same: 26% → 31% (+5 pts)

Business Performance (past 3 months)

• Below expectations: 47% → 36% (–11 pts)

Revenue (Year-on-Year)

• Revenue down YoY: 50% → 41% (–9 pts)
• Revenue up YoY: 30% → 38% (+8 pts)

Hiring & Staffing

• Planning to hire: 47% → 41% (–6 pts)

Business Costs & Payments

• Have raised / plan to raise prices: 61% → 66% (+5 pts)
• Energy unaffordable: 45% → 40% (–5 pts)
• Fewer customers paying on time: 41% → 36% (–5 pts)

Top Business Concerns

1. Consumer confidence & demand: 59% → 55% (–4 pts)
2. Inflationary pressure & interest rates: 29% → 44% (+15 pts)
3. Productivity & growth: 43% → 36% (–7 pts)
4. Cashflow & accounts payable/receivable: 32% → 30% (–2 pts)
5. International trade & geopolitical risks: 26% → 25% (–1 pt)

Notes:

The February 2026 Business Confidence Survey was conducted from 9 and 17 February 2026. The full February 2026 Business Confidence Survey results are attached here.

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