In the aftermath of Barack Obama’s historic victory in the 2008 presidential election, two questions have frequently arisen. How did he manage to turn nine or ten “red states” into “blue states,” (as of this writing, Missouri is still too close to call), and why was the voter turnout “flat,” that is, not much greater than the voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election? As it happens, the two questions are somewhat related. This paper addresses them both.

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Author's Note: the numbers, not the findings, are preliminary.