National Has Nearly Double Labour’s Support – One News/Colmar Brunton
John Key sets a new record in preferred PM ranking

Sunday 02 October, 2011

Less than two months out from the election the latest One News Colmar poll shows National with 56% of the party vote – nearly double that of Labour which has dropped back one point to 29%.

The poll, which surveyed 1008 eligible voters between September 24 and September 28, also has John Key on 59% in the Preferred Prime Minister rankings, a new high since he began appearing in the poll in 2006.

Labour is again under 30% with the Green Party picking up three points to reach 9%.

One News Political Editor Guyon Espiner says despite questions about the government’s position on the war in Afghanistan and its handling of the economy, National has lost none of its support.

“Normally you would expect the gap between the two major parties to begin to narrow this close to the election but National has a 27 point lead which is as big as it has ever been,” Espiner said.

Espiner said the results were even more remarkable given that economic confidence continued to drop, with this poll showing a four point drop in optimism and a four point rise in pessimism.

“National just doesn’t seem to be getting the blame for anything right now. Labour will be hoping that once the Rugby World Cup finishes and the election campaign gets into full swing over the month of November it can get more cut through with voters. But turning around the kind of result you see in this poll is a huge ask.”

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Summary of ONE NEWS COLMAR BRUNTON Poll Results

PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE

National 56% (steady since August)

Labour 29% (down 1)

Green Party 9% (up 3)

NZ First 1.9% (Down 0.4)

ACT NZ 1.3% (Down 0.4)

Maori Party 1.1% (Down 0.3)

Mana Party 0.6% (Down 0.3)

United Future 0% (Down 0.5)

PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

National 69

Labour 36

Green Party 11

Maori Party 4*

ACT 2*

United Future 1*

Mana Party 1*

* Assuming electorate seats are held

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Key 59% (Up 2)

Goff 8% (steady)

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Optimism 45% (Down 4 points)

Pessimism 35% (Up 4)

Ends