In July support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 53.5% down 1% since June, but still more than double the support for National on 26.5%, down 0.5%, with just over a month to go before the election in mid-September.

If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

Interviewing for this survey in July encompassed the period before and after Judith Collins became the new leader of National in mid-July after former leader Todd Muller’s shock resignation after less than two months in the role.

The early indications are that the new leader has had a negligible impact on support for National although a full month of interviewing in August will provide a clearer picture in the run-up to next month’s election.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition remains strong at 63% in July

In June 63% of electors supported the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, down 2% since June. The governing coalition was well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 33%, up 1% since June.

• Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First was unchanged at only 1.5% in July, and more importantly down a significant 5.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017. NZ First are again below the party vote threshold of 5% in July and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.
• Greens support was at 8%, down 1% since June, but still up 1.7% since their election result in 2017 and was comfortably above the 5% threshold.
• Importantly, support for Act NZ continues to increase and was at 6.5% in July, up 1.5% since June and were this level of support repeated at the election it would be Act’s best election result since 2002 when the party scored over 7% of the vote and won 9 seats in Parliament.

A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

• Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was unchanged at 1.5% in July and the Maori Party was at 0.5% (down 0.5%).

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating down, but still near highs at 152.5 in July

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a very high 152.5 in July, down 1pt from 153.5 in June.

The majority (71.5%) of New Zealand electors (down 0.5% since June) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 19% (up 0.5%) that said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was also barely changed in July at 104.3, down 0.2pts from June (104.5).

The stability in both indicators follows four months of large changes from March to June that drove Roy Morgan Government Confidence to a record high in April while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating hit its lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in the same month at only 84.8.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is set to be re-elected with an increased majority next month as National turn to yet another new leader in mid-July to try and revive their fortunes:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s adept handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is still paying dividends with the Labour Party set to substantially increase its majority at next month’s election.

“Support for the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party was at 53.5% in July and still more than double that of National on 26.5%, now led by new leader Judith Collins. Collins became National’s third leader in 2020 in mid-July and today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows there has been no immediate bounce in support for National after their second change of leader this year.

“Labour’s coalition partners NZ First are in danger of missing out on a return to Parliament as their support has stagnated at only 1.5% for a second straight month. Support for NZ First is down 5.7% on their result at the 2017 NZ Election and may signal the end of the long political career of leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Peters was first elected to the Parliament more than forty years ago before current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was born.

“The biggest beneficiaries of the demise of NZ First are set to be Act NZ which has again increased its support in July, up 1.5% to 6.5%. Act NZ are set to achieve their best result at a New Zealand election since 2002 when the party received 7.1% of the vote and won nine seats.

“A strong performance from the right-wing Act NZ at this year’s election will strengthen the hand of David Seymour, and his new deputy leader Brooke van Velden, and place further pressure on National leader Judith Collins to rally support on the centre-right.”

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8489-nz-national%20-voting-intention-july-2020-202008070802

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