The Scientific Dilemmas of Climate Change: where are we now and what is a NET?

Roger Davies is Professor of Climate Physics at the University of Auckland.

This talk will start with an objective overview of climate change and where it appears to be heading. The goal will be to demystify the science behind climate change by answering the following questions:

• What do we know for sure? Agreed to by most or all climate scientists.
• What is plausible but not proven? … but just as hard to disprove.
• What is best-guess speculation? This is where the scientific discussion gets most heated.

He’ll also talk a little about unresolved climate science dilemmas that he finds interesting:

Clouds (his specialty). All clouds reflect solar radiation (cooling) but high clouds are a powerful greenhouse component (warming). Which effect will win?

Past climates. Sea level was 4 to 7 m higher in the recent past (when carbon dioxide was far less). Should we ignore this?

Chaos. What about natural variability and how is this affected by chaos? Should we ignore this too?

The second part of the talk will look to the future and introduce the latest buzz word: NET.

This is potentially where forests (but perhaps not birds) may be important.

Venue: Kelston Community Centre, cnr Awaroa/Great North Rd. Non members welcome, join us for supper afterwards. Koha appreciated to cover hall hire. For further information ph Liz 0274 762732 lizanstey@hotmail.com

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