Valid from Tuesday 15 Mar 2022 to Friday 18 Mar 2022

A subtropical low to the northeast of the North Island moves slowly away to the east late Tuesday and during Wednesday. This low is expected to direct a moist south to southeast flow over central and northern parts of New Zealand and bring periods of rain to eastern districts of the North Island.

From Tuesday to early Thursday, there is low confidence of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria in Gisborne south of Tokomaru Bay and Hawke's Bay north of Napier, but especially about the Wairoa District.

A front moves over southern and eastern parts of the South Island on Tuesday and Wednesday then weakens. A ridge then spreads over much of southern and central New Zealand from late Wednesday through into Friday, directing and easterly flow over northern New Zealand.

Low confidence: a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence: a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

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