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Tourists To Arrive Within Weeks – Expert Reaction

New Zealand’s doors to the world will widen earlier than expected – from mid-April for Australia.

The country’s border is set to open for tourists and others from Australia without residence visas from midnight 12 April, and travellers from visa-waiver countries such as the US and UK will be welcomed from 2 May – with mandatory vaccination and a negative pre-departure test. This move brings forward the original timetable. No new date was set for the rest of the world to travel here.

The SMC asked experts to comment. 

Dr David Welch, Senior Lecturer, Centre for Computational Evolution and School of Computer Science, University of Auckland, comments:

“With borders reopening more widely and the consequent large rise in the number of travellers coming into the country, we can expect to see any new major variants that arise around the world to spread here fairly quickly. We will no longer have the luxury of time to watch and prepare as any new variants take hold overseas.

“We will need to increase and improve our local surveillance efforts, including genomic surveillance of variants circulating in the community.

“The current system worked well with tightly managed borders and the relatively small outbreaks we saw up to February 2022.

“Now with a much higher number of cases in the community and new cases arriving with travellers who are not going through MIQ, the genomic surveillance system is struggling to cope.

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“A gold-standard genomic surveillance system would sequence most cases who were recent arrivals, most hospitalised cases, and a random sample of cases found in the community. To implement such a system will require coordination between testing labs, DHBs, and sequencing facilities and will need appropriate resourcing.

“Genomic surveillance is a key tool in understanding and controlling the threat posed by COVID. We should be making it a core part of our ongoing response.”

Conflict of interest statement: “My University has received funding from MBIE, HRC, and MoH for my work analysing and reporting on COVID genomics.”

Professor Michael Plank, Te Pūnaha Matatini and University of Canterbury, comments:

“Closing the border was one the first and most important measures New Zealand took to stop the virus in 2020. For the last two years, border restrictions have been an essential part of our strategy.

“Fully reopening the border with no quarantine requirements is a huge milestone, but it doesn’t mean the pandemic is over. We can’t completely forget about Covid-19 and we still need a toolbox of sustainable measures to control transmission of the virus in the community.

“However, the fact that New Zealand now has comparable levels of infection as other countries means that border restrictions are no longer an effective tool for reducing community transmission. Even several hundred border cases per day likely wouldn’t make a big difference to the remainder of the current Omicron wave.

“Things may change if and when the next variant of concern comes along. This is why all international arrivals will need to be tested. This means we can keep a close eye on what is happening at the border, and we can detect and respond to a new variant as quickly as possible.”

Conflict of interest statement: Michael Plank is partly funded by the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet for research on mathematical modelling of COVID-19.

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