27/12/2024

Covering period of Friday 27th - Tuesday 31st December

Heavy rain on the east coast of the North Island is set to begin to ease today (Friday), bringing sunnier and drier conditions to much of New Zealand to start the weekend. Following a cooler Friday, temperatures are expected to rise again, with Central Otago forecast to reach highs of 32°C.

Boxing Day saw exceptionally wet conditions across the eastern coast of the North Island, with over 100mm of rainfall recorded in the Tairāwhiti ranges. Gisborne alone received more than a month’s worth of rain in just one day, pushing its December rainfall total to over 200mm—close to setting a record for the wettest December there since records began in 1937.

“Onshore winds have maintained a steady feed of rain into the east of the North Island over the last 24 hours,” says MetService Meteorologist John Law. “While the rain will begin to ease today, it’s expected to linger in the Wairoa District until Saturday morning.” A Heavy Rain Warning remains in place for Wairoa until midday on Saturday.

In addition to the rain, southwesterly winds are expected to approach severe gale force in coastal areas of Hawke's Bay and Gisborne/Tairāwhiti. Central regions of New Zealand are also experiencing windy conditions, with Strong Wind Watches issued for areas where exposed locations could see gales or severe gales.

Clearer skies are on the horizon for much of the country. “Saturday promises a dry and sunny day for most of New Zealand, particularly in the western North Island and the South Island,” says Law. “However, some cloud and lingering rain in the east, as well as increasing cloud in the far south, may dampen spirits slightly.”

Central Otago is poised to take the lead in temperatures, with Alexandra expected to reach 32°C on Saturday. “While it’ll be a hot day in Otago, the heat could spark an isolated evening shower,” Law adds.

Looking ahead, rain is forecast to return to the North Island early next week, bringing wet weather to the already saturated Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti regions. “As we approach New Year’s Eve, it’s a good idea to stay updated on the forecast, particularly for areas like Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, which may see a rainy end to 2024,” says Law.

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) - take cover now:

• This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
• When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
• Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
• In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

• When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
• In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

• When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
• In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

• Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
• Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
• During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

• When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
• During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

• To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
• Issued routinely once or twice a day
• Recommendation: Plan

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