Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

Balance of Payments Revisions - Q2 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand)
Balance of Payments Revisions - Q2 2000

Key Points

The current account deficit for the year to Q1 2000 was revised down to $7,328m from $8,545m - an improvement of $1,217m. The size of the revision was significantly greater than expected by the market.

As a proportion of GDP, the current account deficit now stands at 7.1% of GDP, down from 8.2% of GDP published previously. Data for Q2 2000 will be published on Friday.

Although the revisions stretch back five years, the most significant revisions relate to the year to Q1 1999 (see chart below). The estimated deterioration in the current account balance between Q1 1999 and Q1 2000 remained broadly unchanged at $3bn. As the table below shows, the improved current account balance largely reflects much higher estimates of the earnings of New Zealand owned foreign investments. Relatively small revisions to other components of the current account balance more or less cancel each other out.

Market Reaction: The NZD bounced 10 pts to 0.4150 on publication of the better than expected revision but drifted back off to 0.4145 later in the afternoon.

Comment While today's outcome has implications for the level of our current account forecast, the profile from here is unchanged. As noted above, the movement in the current account balance over the past year is little changed compared to that published earlier, with the key revisions occurring for the year to Q1 1999.

Data for Q2 2000 will be released on Friday, 10.45am NZT. We now expect a current account deficit of around $1,400m for the quarter. As a result, an annual deficit of around $7,500m is expected - equivalent to 7.1% of GDP, and unchanged from Q1 2000.

A more substantive improvement in the annual current account deficit is unlikely to occur before Q4 2000, at which point the impact of the frigate purchase in Q4 1999 will drop out of the annual figures. At that point we expect the deficit to fall towards 6% of GDP. A further fall to around 4% of GDP is expected to occur over the subsequent two years, a 1% of GDP improvement on our previous forecast, reflecting the favourable baseline revision.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand


This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.

For answers to your EMU questions, check Deutsche Bank's EMU web site http://www.db.com/emu or email our helpline business.emu@db.com.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Statistics New Zealand: COVID-19 Sees Record 12.2 Percent Fall In New Zealand’s Economy

Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 12.2 percent in the June 2020 quarter, the largest quarterly fall recorded since the current series began in 1987, as the COVID-19 restrictions in place through the quarter impacted economic activity, Stats NZ said ... More>>

ALSO:

Climate: Scientists Release ‘Blueprint’ To Save Critical Ecosystems And Stabilize The Earth’s Climate

A group of scientists and experts produced the first comprehensive global-scale analysis of terrestrial areas essential for biodiversity and climate resilience, totaling 50.4% of the Earth's land. The report was published in Science Advances ... More>>

ALSO:

MPI: Independent Review Launched Into Assurances For Safe Transport Of Livestock By Sea

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has launched an independent review of the assurances it receives for the safe transport of livestock by sea. MPI Director-General Ray Smith says Mike Heron QC has been appointed to lead the review, which is expected ... More>>

ALSO:


Computers: New Zealand PC Market Grows Nearly 40% Due To Work From Home Demand

COVID-19 had large impacts on demand for PCs as businesses prepared for lockdowns by purchasing notebooks to mobilise their workforce. In the second quarter of 2020, New Zealand's Traditional PC market experienced a 39.7% year-on-year (YoY) growth ... More>>

ALSO:

Mediaworks: Reaches Agreement To Sell TV Operations To Discovery, Inc.

New Zealand’s largest independent commercial broadcaster MediaWorks and the global leader of real-life entertainment Discovery Inc. (“Discovery”) are pleased to announce they have reached a binding agreement regarding the sale of MediaWorks’ ... More>>

ALSO:

Ministry of Health: Public Transport Distancing Requirements Relaxed

Physical distancing requirements on public transport have been reviewed by the Ministry of Health to determine whether they are still required at Alert Level 2 (or below). The Ministry’s assessment is that mandatory face covering and individuals tracking ... More>>

ALSO:

NZHIA: New Zealand Hemp Industry Set To Generate $2 Billion Per Annum And Create 20,000 Jobs

A new report says a fully enabled hemp industry could generate $2 billion in income for New Zealand by 2030, while also creating thousands of new jobs. Written by industry strategist Dr Nick Marsh, the report has prompted calls from the New Zealand Hemp ... More>>

ALSO:

Stats NZ: One In 14 Employed People Report High Risk Of Losing Jobs

About one in 14 workers say they expect to lose their job or business by mid-2021, Stats NZ said today. A survey of employed people in the June 2020 quarter showed 7 percent felt there was a high or almost certain chance of losing their job or business ... More>>

ASB Quarterly Economic Forecast: NZ Economy Doing Better Than Expected, But Challenges Remain

August lockdown estimated to have shaved 8% off NZ’s weekly GDP, and 0.5% off annual GDP Economy now expected to shrink 5% (year-on-year) by end of 2020 Unemployment rate now expected to peak at 7.2% The latest ASB Quarterly Economic Forecast is less ... More>>

ALSO:

SAFE: Live Export Ship Carrying 5,800 New Zealand Cows Goes Missing In East China Sea

Livestock carrier Gulf Livestock 1 sent a distress signal at 4:45am NZT yesterday in the East China Sea. The area is affected by Typhoon Maysak. At 4pm a patrol plane spotted a lifeboat - with no people in it - and a man in lifejacket nearby. The ship ... More>>

ALSO:

FMA: Kiwisaver Fees Don't Match Performance

The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) today published an independent report into the passive and active investment management styles [i] used by KiwiSaver providers. The FMA commissioned MyFiduciary to test the extent that KiwiSaver providers were ... More>>