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ANZ Job Ads Survey - October 2000

Data Flash (New Zealand) ANZ Job Ads Survey - October 2000

Key Points
* The trend number of job ads - the headline figure reported by the ANZ - rose 1.0% mom in October.
* However, in seasonally adjusted terms, we estimate that the number of job ads fell 1.1% during the month. Nonetheless, this should be seen as a robust result as it follows a cumulative 8% growth over the previous three months.

Commentary

The continued resilience of job ads adds some credence to last week's incredibly strong HLFS employment result. As the chart below shows, the ANZ series - once seasonally adjusted - was one of the few indicators to point to anything like the HLFS outcome. While we maintain the view that the HLFS almost certainly overstated the strength of the labour market, it is clear that the labour market is performing more strongly than many people had expected (and certainly stronger than some surveys had suggested). Next week's Quarterly Employment Survey will be analysed closely for signs that the Q3 HLFS result should have been taken more seriously by the market.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand,

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