Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade (Imports)

Data Flash (New Zealand)

NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade (Imports) - October 2000

Key Points

Statistics NZ reported a provisional trade deficit of $225m for the month of October compared with a deficit of $430m in October 1999. Around $140m of the annual improvement reflects lower imports of capital transport equipment during the month (including aircraft).

Due to seasonal factors, large deficits are common at this time of the year - the average deficit for October over the past 10 years is $228m.

The market expectation had been for a deficit of $255m. Although the trade balance printed close to the median market expectation, both export and import values printed stronger than market expectations.

The annual deficit fell slightly to $2,905m in October from $3,110m in September.

The estimated level of exports in October was 32.5% higher than a year earlier, while exports for the three months to October were 27.1% higher than a year earlier.

We estimate that export prices in Q4 2000 will be some 24% higher than a year earlier. This suggests growth in export volumes of around 7-8% yoy in Q4 - consistent with our expectations. Detailed export data will be made available with the final trade release on 11 December.

The estimated level of imports in October was 18.6% higher than a year earlier, while imports for the three months to October were 18.7% higher than a year earlier.

We estimate that import prices in Q4 2000 will be some 25% higher than a year earlier. Excluding imports of capital transport equipment (strongly influence by aircraft imports), imports in October were 26.8% ahead of the same month last year. This implies that core import volumes are broadly flat, in keeping with subdued consumer demand and a sharp decline in building activity.

Commentary

The latest outcome was broadly in line with our own forecast of a trade deficit of $250m. Therefore, our view of the outlook for the trade balance and the current account deficit has not been changed by today's release.

As discussed in our October Economic Forecasts, we believe that the conditions are now in place for a significant improvement in the current account deficit, driven largely by an improving trade balance. The forecast improvement reflects our expectation of continued strong growth in export volumes (driven by relatively robust world growth, a competitive exchange rate and continued growth in commodity exports); subdued growth in import volumes (due to weak domestic demand and import substitution); and our assumption of a recovery in the terms of trade (driven by our assumption of a significant fall in oil prices in the second half of 2001).

On this basis, we expect the current account deficit to decline to below 3% of GDP by Q1 2003.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist,

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

In order to read our research you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader which can be obtained from their website http://www.adobe.com for free.


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 


FIRST Union: Do Shareholders Realise Marsden Point Conversion Could Cost More Than Half A Billion Dollars?

FIRST Union, the union representing workers at Refining NZ, are querying whether shareholders voting on Friday on whether to convert the Marsden Point refinery to an import-only terminal realise the conversion could cost $650-700 million dollars... More>>



Civil Contractors: Massive Rebound In Civil Construction Business Confidence

New Zealand’s civil construction industry is riding a massive rebound in post-pandemic business confidence – but this may be undermined by skills shortages, which continue to be the industry’s number one challenge... More>>



Energy: Feeling Our Way Towards Hydrogen - Tina Schirr

Right now hydrogen is getting a lot of attention. Many countries are focusing on producing hydrogen for fuel, or procuring it, or planning for its future use... More>>


Transport: July 2021 New Vehicle Registrations Boosted By EV Rebate Scheme
Motor Industry Association Chief Executive David Crawford says that July 2021 sales of new vehicles were boosted by the recently introduced rebate scheme. July 2021 registrations were 15,053 units compared to 12,263 units for July 2020... More>>



ASB: New Support Finder Tool Helps Connect Customers With Thousands In Government Support

ASB research alongside benefit numbers from the Ministry of Social Development shows an increased number of Kiwis are struggling financially, and many may not be aware they’re eligible for government support... More>>


Housing: New Home Consents Continue To Break Records

A record 44,299 new homes were consented in the year ended June 2021, Stats NZ said today. “The annual number of new homes consented rose again in the June 2021 year, the fourth consecutive month of rises,” construction statistics manager Michael Heslop said... More>>