Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

ANZ Commodity Price Index - August 2001

Data Flash (New Zealand) NZ:
ANZ Commodity Price Index - August 2001


Following two consecutive declines, the foreign currency price of New Zealand's commodity exports rose 0.5% mom in August. The result was driven largely by higher prices for beef. Higher prices were also recorded for skins and venison. 10 of the 17 commodities surveyed were either constant or higher during the month.

Reflecting the appreciation of the NZD between July and August, especially against the USD, the NZD price index declined by 4.1% mom in August. However, the index remains 50% higher than its cyclical low point in 1999.

Comment

The world price of New Zealand's export commodities has remained robust over the past year, helping to buffer the New Zealand economy from the full impact of the marked weaker global environment. As the chart below illustrates, growth in real gross domestic income - GDP adjusted to capture the impact of the terms of trade on purchasing power - is running over 1% stronger than growth in official GDP. This helps to explain the relative buoyancy of consumer spending and the recovery in the housing market.

Notwithstanding the small rise in August, in our view world prices are likely to remain on a downtrend over the next 6 to 9 months. However, we have factored in only a 5% decline in world prices in the year to Q1 2002 - just half that assumed by the RBNZ in its August Monetary Policy Statement. To the extent that world export prices fall by less than the RBNZ has assumed, all other things equal, domestic demand is likely to exceed the RBNZ's forecast and inflation pressures would be somewhat stronger.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist, New Zealand

This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com

Please do not respond to this mailbox. If you need to update your contact information or request new research, contact your Deutsche Bank Sales Contact.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 


Auckland Airport: North American Touch Downs Make AA Most Connected In Australasia
The return of American Airlines, the world’s largest airline, announced today has cemented Auckland Airport’s title as the Australasian airport with the most non-stop connections to the United States and Canada... More>>



Reserve Bank: Monetary Conditions Tighten By More And Sooner

The Monetary Policy Committee today increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.0 percent. The Committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability... More>>


The Download Weekly: Vodafone FibreX back in court

Vodafone and the Commerce Commission head back to court over FibreX in a week the TCF issues broadband marketing codes that should avoid similar problems in the future... More>>



Kiwibank: Savers To Benefit From Higher Returns Following OCR Rise

Following market movements Kiwibank is pleased to increase the interest rate and rates of return on its savings accounts... More>>

Fonterra: Provides 2022/23 Opening Forecast Farmgate Milk Price & Business Performance Update
Fonterra today announced its 2022/23 opening forecast Farmgate Milk Price and provided an update on its third-quarter performance... More>>


Stats: Quiet Start For Retail In 2022
The volume of retail sales was relatively unchanged in the March 2022 quarter, following a strong increase in the December 2021 quarter, Stats NZ said today... More>>