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Building Consents - July 2002


We have just published the following research.

Data Flash (New Zealand) Building Consents - July 2002

A 274% surge in apartment consents to a historic high drove new dwelling consents 12.4% mom higher in July. Excluding apartments, a more moderate - but still steady - rise of 4.2% mom was recorded. Such a high level of consent issuance for apartments is unlikely to be sustained. Therefore, we expect total August consents to decline around by 8% mom, even given further growth in consents for single unit dwellings.

Based on past relationships with house sales, the trend rise in dwelling consents should continue for a month or two yet before beginning to moderate. House sales have declined by around 10% over the past three months and typically provide around a 4-month lead on trends in dwelling consent issuance. Non-residential building consents with a value of $286m were issued in July - the highest level recorded since October 2001. The three-month running total was 7.7% higher than a year earlier.

Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist

***The attached research constitutes Deutsche Bank's proprietary information*** This, along with an extensive range of other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com


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