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RBNZ MPS: Summary Of Economic Projections


Table C
Summary of economic projections
(Annual percentage change, unless specified otherwise)

::Actuals:: Projections
March year::1997::1998::1999::2000::2001::2002::2003::2004::2005::2006

Price measures
CPI*::2.0::1.7::1.0::1.7::3.1::2.6::2.5::1 1/4::2 1/2::2 3/4
Labour costs::2.0::1.9::1.6::1.4::1.6::2.1::2.2::2::2::2
Import prices (in New Zealand dollars) ::-4.6::2.9::2.7::11.2::7.4::-2.9::-9.0::-5 1/2::5 3/4::5
Export prices (in New Zealand dollars) ::-6.3::4.2::-0.6::9.9::20.6::-3.5::-15.3::-7 1/2::5 1/2::4 3/4

Monetary conditions
90-day rate (year average)::9.0::8.0::6.2::5.2::6.6::5.4::5.9::5 1/4::5 3/4::6
TWI (year average)::66.4::64.4::57.3::56.1::50.4::50.3::56.4::63 1/2::63 1/2::60 1/2

Output
GDP (production, annual average % change)::3.5::1.5::0.4::4.9::2.7::3.4::4.4::2 3/4::3::2 1/2
GDP (production, March qtr to March qtr)::2.1::0.1::2.4::6.1::1.0::4.1::4.0::2 3/4::2 3/4::2 1/4
Output gap (% of potential GDP, year average)::1.5::0.1::-2.0::0.2::0.1::0.4::1.5:: 3/4:: 1/2::- 1/4

Labour market::
Total employment::1.2::0.0::0.6::1.4::2.3::3.5::1.5::3::1 1/2::1
Unemployment rate (March qtr, s.a.)::6.5::7.2::7.2::6.3::5.4::5.2::4.9::4 1/2::4 3/4::5
Trend labour productivity (annual % change)::1.0::1.3::1.5::1.5::1.4::1.3::1.1::1::1 1/4::1 1/2

Key balances
Government operating balance (% of GDP, year to June)::1.9::2.5::1.7::1.3::1.2::1.9::1.7::3 1/4::3 1/2::3 1/2
Current account balance (% of GDP, year to March)::-6.1::-5.5::-4.3::-6.7::-4.1::-2.3::-4.0::-5 3/4::-6::-6
Terms of trade (OTI measure, annual average % change)::-0.8::-1.0::-0.4::-0.2::4.4::4.1::-6.2::- 1/2::-2 1/2::0
Household savings rate::-3.0::-4.0::-4.8::-0.8::-4.4::-3.7::-4 1/4::-5 3/4::-6::-6
(% of disposable income, year to March)

World economy
World GDP (annual average % change)::4.1::3.5::2.0::4.3::3.6::1.3::3.0::2 3/4::3 1/2::3 1/2
World CPI inflation::2.2::2.2::1.1::2.0::2.7::1.4::2.2::1 1/4::1 1/2::1 3/4

s.a. = seasonally adjusted
*::This series is annual CPI inflation, excluding credit services, until the June 1999 quarter, and annual CPI inflation thereafter (adjusted by Statistics New Zealand to exclude interest and section prices from the September 1999 quarter to the June 2000 quarter).

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