Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

Fonterra pessimistic says Deutsche Bank

Fonterra 2010 forecast pessimistic says Deutsche Bank

By Paul McBeth

May 27 – Fonterra Cooperative Group’s forecast payout for the 2010 season could be overly pessimistic because the kiwi dollar may retreat from a seven-month high, while the global economy slump may be past its worst, according to Deutsche Bank.

The world’s largest dairy exporter announced an opening forecast payment for the 2010 season of NZ$4.55 per kilogram of milk solids, a decline of 13% from this season’s NZ$5.20 per kg. Fonterra blamed the lower forecast on the strength of the New Zealand dollar, which jumped 27% from its sub-50% U.S. cents low early in March.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said dairy payouts had come down significantly from the NZ$7.60 peak last season, and that although the dairy cooperative would see weaker revenues, farms would also benefit from cheaper operating costs.

“It could be Fonterra under-promising and over-delivering,” Gibbs said. “The kiwi has extended a long way ahead of commodity prices” and any pull-back would give the dairy exporter more breathing space, he said.

Dairy products account for some 20% of New Zealand’s annual NZ$43.2 billion export market, and any reduction in this revenue will impact on the wider economy, Gibbs said. Milk and cheese exports rose 4.8% to NZ$8.9 billion in the 12 months to April 30, according to government statistics.

Positive signs are beginning to appear in the economy, Gibbs said, and global sentiment supports the prospect that the downturn has past is nadir.

Gibbs doubts the reintroduction of dairy subsidies by the U.S. government played much of a role in the forecast, with it too early to say how the subsidies will impact on the market.

“There’s potential for a tit-for-tat” response between the U.S. and Europe, and that could have an adverse impact on New Zealand’s dairy industry, he said.

Federated Farmers said the new subsidies “snuffled out” any optimism about the dairy sector, with the low forecast likely to weigh negatively on the economy.

“If you live in the city and think you’re immune from this, think again,” said Lachlan McKenzie, dairy chairman for Federated Farmers. “It’s a hell of a lot of money that isn’t coming through the front door of the economy.”

(BusinessWire)

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Federated Farmers: Applauds UK-Australia Free Trade Deal

News that Australia and the UK have signed a free trade agreement is a promising step forward in the fight against tariffs and protectionism, Federated Farmers says.
"It reinforces the international rules-based trading framework and is important for rural producers and global consumers," Feds President Andrew Hoggard says... More>>



REINZ May Data: House Price Rises Continue; Auckland Hits New Record Median Price Again

Median prices for residential property across New Zealand increased by 32.3% from $620,000 in May 2020 to $820,000 in May 2021, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand... More>>

Energy Resources Aotearoa: Doubling Of Coal Use Shows Need For Local Natural Gas

New figures showing a near doubling of coal-fired electricity generation highlight New Zealand’s energy shortage and the need for natural gas as a lower carbon alternative, according to Energy Resources Aotearoa... More>>


Reserve Bank: Debt Serviceability Restrictions Added To Policy Toolkit

The Reserve Bank – Te Pūtea Matua and the Minister of Finance have agreed to update their shared Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on macro-prudential policy and add debt serviceability restrictions to the list of potential tools available... More>>


Auction: 1.4 Million In Rare Vintage Watches, Gems, Jewels & Diamonds Go Under The Hammer At Webb’s

An auction event showcasing over 1.4 Million dollars in rare jewels, gems, diamonds and vintage watches is due to take place this Sunday by Auckland based auction house Webb’s... More>>

Catalist: NZ’s New SME Stock Exchange, Gets Licence To Go Public

New Zealand has a new stock exchange – designed specifically for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) to raise up to $20 million a year from the public.
Called Catalist, the exchange has already been successfully working the private investment sector.... More>>