Rabobank Agribusiness Review August 2011
Please find attached Rabobank’s latest monthly Agribusiness Review for Australia and New Zealand.
Prepared by the bank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory division (FAR), the report provides monthly commentary on Australian and New Zealand agricultural conditions.
• July was relatively warm but also wet in New Zealand, with conditions expected to be warm with average rainfall for most of the country into spring, with the eastern South Island facing average temperatures and dry conditions. July was dry and warm across Australia and conditions are expected to remain near-normal and warm into spring.
• US and EU debt woes combined to create considerable market jitters over the past week, on top of weeks of ongoing uncertainty over the speed and strength of the global recovery. It is an uneven and evolving global picture, and the ongoing implications for agri-commodity markets and consumer demand are not yet clear. Rabobank’s view is that the fundamentals will re-assert themselves to drive agri-commodities over coming months.
• New Zealand’s economy has shown some more positive signs, with GDP, employment and business confidence all firm or up slightly. Economic data in Australia continues to highlight the strength of the mining sector and the softness of growth elsewhere in the economy. Both the NZD and the AUD fell back sharply against the USD in recent days, but are showing signs of stabilising and strengthening.
• Global dairy prices weakened during July as expected, given the strong supply response and more comfortable stock positions in importing countries. Conditions at the start of the new southern hemisphere season are favourable and producers are looking forward to strong prices.
• Beef prices in New Zealand and Australia eased a little in July, as is usual at this time of year. The ongoing strength of local currencies and some softness around demand in export markets the main headwinds. In Australia, the live cattle trade with Indonesia is about to resume; a welcome development for northern producers. Lamb prices have stabilised in New Zealand, with short supply still the driver, and continued to ease in Australia.
• Global grains markets were volatile through July, with continuing concerns over the US crop and the re-entry to export grain markets by Russia the main factors. The Australian winter crop is about to get going, with ongoing dry conditions on the east coast a mounting concern while conditions in the west appear to have improved.
• Oil prices fell sharply in early August in response to debt woes, after a steady July.
To view the full report, please follow this link: