Scoop has an Ethical Paywall
License needed for work use Register

Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


Latest ASB NZ Housing Confidence Survey Released

ASB NZ Housing Confidence Survey

Rising house price expectations fail to boost housing optimism

* Housing Confidence dropped slightly in the July 2011 quarter * House price expectations increase across the regions, with Auckland leading the way * Heightened expectations of interest rate increases over the next 12 months

Housing confidence eased slightly over the three months to the end of July, according to the latest ASB NZ Housing Confidence Survey.

The ASB Housing Confidence Index edged down two points over the quarter, with a net 25 percent of respondents saying that now is a good time to buy a house, compared to 27 percent in the previous quarter. Sentiment remains slightly above the historical average of net 22 percent.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley says house price expectations have risen across the regions, with a net 25 percent of respondents now expecting house prices to increase over the coming year. "House price expectations remain highest in Auckland, consistent with recent data showing a tighter supply of housing in this region compared to the rest of the country. Despite the boost in price expectations across New Zealand, however, housing confidence still dropped slightly, reflecting a continued caution in the market. "

A month-to-month breakdown of the results showed a drop in housing confidence and price expectations in Christchurch over May and June. The June earthquakes are likely to have added to the downbeat mood - however there was some rebound in July, particularly for price expectations. House sale data also shows a decline in house sales in June reflecting the disruptions from the earthquakes that month, followed by a recovery in July. "These developments suggest there remains underlying demand for undamaged properties in Christchurch," Mr Tuffley says.

Advertisement - scroll to continue reading

Are you getting our free newsletter?

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.

There was an increase in the number of respondents who expect interest rates will increase over the next year. "Just over a net 46 percent of respondents now expect interest rates to rise, up from a net 34 percent in the April quarter. Signs the economy has been improving have no doubt contributed to household expectations that the Reserve Bank would raise the OCR earlier. However, there has been significant volatility in global markets since the survey was taken, which adds some uncertainty as to when interest rates will rise," he says.

Recent market data have also shown a gradual pick-up in housing market activity. Mr Tuffley says the median number of days to sell a house has continued to edge lower to 41 days, although the measure remains above the long-term average of 39 days.

"We expect house prices nationwide to grow modestly at a rate of around 3 percent over the coming year. House price growth in Auckland is likely to be stronger than that, reflecting its relatively tighter market." Mr Tuffley says.

HousingConfidenceAug11 (pdf)


© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

FMA: MAS To Pay $2.1M Penalty For Making False Representations

Following proceedings brought by the FMA, MAS has been ordered to pay a $2.1M penalty for making false and/or misleading representations to some customers. MAS admitted failing to correctly apply multi-policy discounts and no claims bonus discounts to some customers, failing to correctly apply inflation adjustments on some customer policies, and miscalculating benefit payments.More

IAG: Call On New Government To Prioritise Flood Resilience

The economic toll of our summer of storms continues to mount, with insurance payouts now topping $1B, second only to the Christchurch earthquakes. AMI, State, & NZI have released the latest Wild Weather Tracker, which reveals 51,000 claims for the North Island floods & Cyclone Gabrielle, of which 99% (motor), 97% (contents), and 93% (home) of claims have now been settled. More


Join Our Free Newsletter

Subscribe to Scoop’s 'The Catch Up' our free weekly newsletter sent to your inbox every Monday with stories from across our network.