Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

iPredict to launch stocks forecasting Fonterra payouts

Monday 22 August 2011

iPredict to launch stocks forecasting Fonterra payouts

New Zealand's online predictions market, iPredict, will this week launch stocks to provide New Zealand dairy farmers and others with the first-ever five-year forecasts of Fonterra's likely milk solids payout.

Draft stocks are currently available at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/forum/read.php?4,13546,13546#msg-13546 to enable traders to review and comment on their fine-print prior to the formal launch. Dairy farmers and other dairy industry experts are also encouraged to comment and trade.

"Fonterra is New Zealand's most important company, responsible for around a quarter of our exports and around 7% of GDP," iPredict CEO Matt Burgess said today.

"Until now, the only source of rigorous data about the company's future payout to farmers has been the company itself, and then usually with only a two-year horizon.

"With iPredict's new stocks, dairy farmers, the wider industry, economists, banks, the government and everyone with an interest in New Zealand's medium-term economic prospects, will be able to obtain free snapshot information on how the company is likely to perform, in terms of payout, for the next five years."

Mr Burgess said the stocks would be based on Fonterra's final payout, per kilogram of milk solids, to a 100 percent share-backed farmer (before retentions), for the five financial years from and including 2010/11.

"Currently, Fonterra is forecasting a payout in the range of $8.00 to $8.10 for 2010/11 and $7.15 to $7.25 for 2011/12. The iPredict stocks will provide farmers and everyone else with an independent assessment of the forecast payout."

Mr Burgess said the iPredict forecasts for the three further out-years would be more indicative but would give a general indication of the likely performance of the company.

"iPredict produces consensus views on the likelihood of future events, based on the theory of the 'wisdom of crowds'. This holds that where people pool their perspectives and knowledge about a future event, their opinion is likely to be accurate," he said.

iPredict's binary contracts of political and economic events had an accuracy rate of 88%, he said.

Predictions markets like iPredict are mainstream throughout the world, with the most prominent being www.Intrade.com in the United States. iPredict operates in New Zealand with authorisation of the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority. The company is owned by Victoria University of Wellington.

ENDS

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 




Energy: New Zealand Could Be World’s First Large-scale Producer Of Green Hydrogen

Contact Energy and Meridian Energy are seeking registrations of interest to develop the world’s largest green hydrogen plant. The plant has the potential to earn hundreds of millions in export revenue and help decarbonise economies both here and overseas... More>>


MBIE: 36th America’s Cup Post-event Reports Released

Post-event reporting on the 36th America’s Cup (AC36) has been released today. The reports cover the delivery of the event by Crown, Council and America’s Cup Event Limited, economic impacts for Auckland and New Zealand, and delivery of critical infrastructure... More>>

Fonterra: Farmer Feedback Set To Shape Revised Capital Structure Proposal

With the first phase of Fonterra’s capital structure consultation now complete, the Co-op is drawing up a revised proposal that aims to reflect farmers’ views. A number of changes are being considered to the preferred option initially put forward in the Consultation Booklet in May... More>>




Statistics: Household Saving Falls In The March 2021 Quarter

Saving by New Zealanders in the March 2021 quarter fell to its lowest level in two years after rising sharply in 2020, Stats NZ said today. Increases in household spending outpaced income growth, leading to a decline in household saving from the elevated levels that prevailed throughout 2020... More>>

ALSO: