Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

A quarterly review of the economic forecasters - August 2011

RODNEY’S RAVINGS

A quarterly review of the economic forecasters’ track record

Embargoed for media release until 1am Thursday 25 August 2011

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NZIER does an excellent job surveying the economic forecasters each quarter and producing a report that summarises the average or Consensus Forecasts for key economic indicators (e.g. economic growth, residential building activity, consumer spending, interest rates, the exchange rate, etc). In addition to showing the consensus or average predictions for the key economic indicators, NZIER also reports the maximum and minimum predictions. The Consensus Forecasts can be accessed from NZEIR’s website by visiting http://nzier.org.nz/publications/browse-by-type/results/taxonomy%3A53. The economic forecasters surveyed currently are: ANZ-National, ASB, BNZ, Deutsche Bank, First NZ Capital, Goldman Sachs, NZIER, RBNZ, The Treasury, UBS and Westpac.

To supplement this useful free service provided by NZIER we will on a quarterly basis review the accuracy of the Consensus Forecasts for five key economic indicators so people can better assess how much notice they should take of the economic forecasters. This Raving contains the first of the quarterly reviews, including a quantified scoring system. Over time a picture should build up of which of the five economic indicators, if any, the economic forecasters are good at predicting.

Providing an independent quarterly review of the accuracy of the economic forecasters fits with our business philosophy. We at Strategic Risk Analysis are not economic forecasters in the traditional sense. We are in the “business risk management” game as opposed to the “economic forecasting” game. We provide our clients with valuable insights into whether the likes of economic growth, residential building activity, interest rates and the NZD are likely to turn out to be significantly higher or lower than what the economic forecasters are predicting. These insights help our clients make more informed operational and/or strategic decisions. If you want to know more about our services please visit our website (www.sra.co.nz) ...


[Full report: ForecastAccuracyAug11.doc]

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Maritime Union: Deepening Supply Chain Crisis Requires Action

Maritime Union of New Zealand National Secretary Craig Harrison says the global COVID-19 pandemic exposed pre-existing weaknesses in our logistics sector, and created enormous problems... More>>



Air New Zealand: Employees Recognised With $1,000 Share Award

The efforts Air New Zealand employees made during one of the airline’s toughest years will be recognised via an award of $1,000 worth of company shares to all permanent employees... More>>

Consumer NZ: Bank Complaints On The Rise, Survey Shows

Nearly one in five Kiwis had a problem with their bank in the past year, Consumer NZ’s latest satisfaction survey finds. Consumer NZ chief executive Jon Duffy said the number of bank customers reporting problems had jumped to 18%, up from 11% in 2020... More>>

Mercury: Enters Into Binding Agreements To Acquire Trustpower’s Retail Business

Mercury NZ Limited (Mercury) has announced that it has entered into binding agreements with Trustpower Limited (Trustpower, NZX:TPW) to acquire Trustpower’s retail business for NZ$441 million... More>>

ALSO:


ASB: New Zealanders Missing Out On Hundreds Of Millions In KiwiSaver Government Contributions

New Zealanders have just over a week to ensure they’re eligible for the maximum annual government KiwiSaver contribution... More>>


Stats NZ: GDP Climbs 1.6 Percent In March 2021 Quarter Following December Dip

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.6 percent in the March 2021 quarter, following a 1.0 percent fall in the December 2020 quarter, Stats NZ said today. "After an easing of economic activity in the December quarter, we’ve seen broad-based growth in the first quarter of 2021... More>>