2012/13 Fonterra payout contracts launching at 11.00am today
2012/13 Fonterra payout contracts launching at 11.00 am today
iPredict's 5000 registered traders - and others who sign up for free - will be able to begin trading on contracts forecasting Fonterra's 2012/13 payout from 11.00 am today (NZT).
Today's launch of the 2012/13 Fonterra contracts follows last week's launch of contracts forecasting Fonterra's 2010/11 and 2011/12 payout (per kilogram of milk solids, to a 100 percent share-backed farmer, before retentions).
By the end of next week, contracts will also be available forecasting Fonterra's 2013/14 and 2014/15 payouts providing the first-ever free real-time forecasts of Fonterra's likely milk solids payout for the next five years.
The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said the Fonterra stocks were attracting widespread interest with heavy trading in recent days, including from new traders.
"Fonterra is New Zealand's most important company, responsible for around a quarter of our exports and around 7% of GDP," iPredict CEO Matt Burgess said today. "iPredict's new stocks mean dairy farmers, the wider industry, economists, banks, the government and everyone with an interest in New Zealand's medium-term economic prospects, will be able to obtain free snapshot information on how the company is likely to perform, in terms of payout, for the next five years."
Currently, iPredict is forecasting a payout of NZ$8.15 for 2010/11 and NZ$750 for 2011/12, both ahead of Fonterra's forecasts that the payouts for those seasons will be in the NZ$8.00 to NZ$8.10 and NZ$7.15 to NZ$7.25 ranges respectively.
The 2012/13 contracts will initially ask traders whether Fonterra's payout for that season will be above NZ$6.00, above NZ$7.00 or about NZ$8.00. Traders can buy as many of each contract as they like. Contracts at higher or lower payouts or in tighter increments will be launched as initial forecasts indicate the likely direction of the season.
iPredict produces consensus views on the likelihood of future events, based on the theory of the 'wisdom of crowds'. This holds that where people pool their perspectives and knowledge about a future event, their opinion is likely to be accurate. iPredict's binary contracts of political and economic events have an accuracy rate of 88%.
Predictions markets like iPredict are mainstream throughout the world, with the most prominent being http://www.Intrade.com in the United States. iPredict operates in New Zealand with authorisation of the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority. The company is owned by Victoria University of Wellington.