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Rabobank Agribusiness Review September 2011

Rabobank Agribusiness Review September 2011

Please find attached Rabobank’s latest Agribusiness Review for Australia and New Zealand.

Prepared by the bank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory division (FAR), the report provides monthly commentary on New Zealand and Australian agricultural conditions.

Key highlights:

• Despite two polar blasts, winter was mostly sunny and warm across New Zealand. Winter rainfall was below-normal across most of the South Island and near-normal across the North Island. Spring arrived early for southern parts of Australia, with above-average day and night time temperatures recorded in August, along with drier-than-normal conditions.

• Global financial markets remain on edge with little meaningful direction yet to emerge on sovereign debt policy issues, and little positive economic news of late to remove the spectre of recession in the EU and US economies. On the home front, a positive rebound in the New Zealand retail sector and ongoing signs of strength in Australia’s mining sector continue to support domestic economic fundamentals.

• The New Zealand and Australian dollars have regained ground following the sharp declines experienced in early August. Heightened volatility is expected to remain in play as global investors search for a lead, however current levels are likely to be supported in the absence of any major global economic shocks.

• Dairy markets through July and August have largely avoided any flow-on effects of turbulent financial markets. On the supply side, the Southern Hemisphere production season is expected to hit its straps in coming weeks. While on the demand side, activity amongst Chinese buyers is likely to intensify as they look to arrange shipments during the new tariff-free period with New Zealand in early 2012.

• Australian live cattle exports to Indonesia recommenced in August, around a month after the market was first re-opened. Prices reportedly opened lower than those being achieved at the same time last year, but have since strengthened in recent weeks due to restricted supply of light cattle suitable for the Indonesian market (under 350kg live weight).

• The wheat market continues to be dominated by speculation over the size of the US corn crop. Growing conditions in Australia have improved in most areas over the last month, and the Western Australia wheat crop has the potential to outperform previous estimates.

To view the full report, please follow this link: Australia and New Zealand Agribusiness Review.


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