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BNZ Weekly Overview - Tony Alexander

BNZ Weekly Overview.

Tony Alexander

These past few days I have been meeting numerous people in London including many expats - giving them the bad news regarding NZ house prices rising and the NZ dollar going upward.

Welcome to the May 2 Weekly Overview.
A full pdf copy of the Weekly Overview is loaded here.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/WO-May-2.pdf
 
Video commentary to accompany the Weekly Overview is loaded here. 3.45 minutes
http://youtu.be/XALpHcmVpfU
 
New subscribers can be added to the emailing list here.
http://feedback.bnz.co.nz/mail/link/inCtaT0P7SnjgImFihkkeA
 
Lead Article – Some Observations From London
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/weekly-overview-lead-article/some-observations-from-london/
I start this week’s overview with a simple run-through of some of the things I have learnt so far regarding the state of the UK economy – not as bad as Europe but affected by EU weakness, London reasonably well underpinned with housing rising. Plus I list the sorts of things expats have expressed interest in during my many meetings with them. I give them the bad news on house prices and the exchange rate. Some look like they’re about to cry. 1,013 words
 
Coronation Street and Tax rates
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/weekly-overview-lead-article/coronation-street-and-tax-rates/
I relate what I heard on the DLR to Stratford on how to avoid the Job Centre getting you off the benefit and into work, and outline how high UK tax rates are. 471 words.
 
No Iron, But a Decent Coffee
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/weekly-overview-lead-article/no-iron-but-a-decent-coffee/
I stayed in a hotel in Paris which provided no ironing facilities at all, there are lots of unemployed youth but you don’t see them, and how I’m looking forward to getting back to NZ where shopkeepers don’t assume straight up that you’re going to steal something. 814 words
 
Some of the Week’s Economic Data
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/the-weeks-economic-data/some-of-the-weeks-data/
I take a quick look at data showing our export base shrinking, housing activity rising but not at a fast enough pace, and credit growth showing no boom underway.  725 words
 
Interest Rates
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/interest-rates/nothing-suggesting-inflation-rising-soon/
NZ inflationary pressures are low and with world growth worries rising this week falls in offshore rates have further lowered NZ rates and pushed out further in time the likely starting date for the NZ tightening cycle. Having said that, the fundamentals for the NZ economy look fairly good so one should not assume our interest rates stay as low as what is likely to be the case offshore.  632 words
 
NZ Housing Market
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/housing-market/listings-shortage-continues-prices-rising/
Our monthly survey shows the listings shortage continues, interest in NZ property from offshore is growing, and next week I’ll be again surveying real estate agents regarding the presence of foreign buyers.  601 words
 
Offshore
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/offshore-economies/europe-is-a-mess-crisis-to-continue/
I write more bad things about Europe and note weaker than expected data in the United States.  1,382 words.
 
Exchange Rates
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/exchange-rates/nzd-pressure-is-upward/
The NZD has weakened against most currencies this week, but money printing could lift in the US, interest rates may be cut in Europe, so basically the underlying pressure on the NZD is upward. 875 words
Some things are best kept private - introduction to BNZ Private Bank
If you would like to speak with one of our Private Bankers to review your personal situation, feel free to contact us for a discreet obligation free discussion on 0800 477 077 or email us at privatebank@bnz.co.nz.  To find out more about BNZ Private Bank, please visit www.bnzprivatebank.co.nz
Tony Alexander produces five regular publications.
The monthly Growing With China issues are here.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/topics/china/
The monthly Brain Gain NZ can be located here.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/topics/brain-gain-nz/
The Weekly Overviews are loaded here.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/topics/regular-publications/bnz-weekly-overview/
The monthly BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Surveys are posted here.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/topics/surveys/bnz-reinz-survey/
The monthly BNZ Confidence Surveys are available here.
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/topics/surveys/bnz-confidence-survey/
 
Other recent publications include the following.
Sources of Western Apprehension About China
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Sources-of-Western-Apprehension.pdf
 
Expat Experiences of NZ Hiring
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Expathiring.pdf
 
Advice from NZ employers to expats and migrants
http://66.147.244.100/~braingai/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Employer-Survey-March-2013.pdf
 
19 Reasons Why Auckland House Prices Will Keep Rising. Page 5 of
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/WONovember-1.pdf
 
Massey University Symposium Handout on Housing Affordability
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Massey-March-2013.pdf
 
Kiwi Business Locus of Control at a Distance
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Locus-of-Control.pdf
All the best
 
Tony Alexander
Chief Economist
www.tonyalexander.co.nz

ENDS

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