Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

ASB: Taking stock in the New Year

ASB: Taking stock in the New Year

ASB Farmshed Economics Report
16 January 2015

Taking stock in the New Year

• Dairy markets moving back into balance over 2015.

• Beef prices off the boil, but still simmering.

• Lengthy period of low interest rates ahead.

While 2014 was a year of big moves in the dairy markets, with record highs and lows, 2015 is shaping up as a year with more moderation, according to the latest ASB Farmshed Economics Report.

“After last year’s steep falls, we expect dairy prices to recover gradually over the year as dairy markets move back into balance,” says ASB Rural Economist Nathan Penny.

Also moving more into balance, albeit from the opposite direction, are beef prices. “Over the last two months beef prices have gone from a boil to a simmer. With the US beef market still tight, we expect beef prices to remain high over 2015, albeit back from recent records.”

After a better 2014, lamb and wool prices have started 2015 under pressure. This pressure may continue over the next couple of months on the back of soft demand, before strength returns mid-year.

Meanwhile, New Zealand appears set for a lengthy period of low interest rates. In particular, falling petrol prices are likely to keep inflation below the Reserve Bank’s target band for much of 2015.

“Weak inflation is likely to keep the Reserve Bank on the interest rate sidelines for most, if not all of 2015,” Mr Penny says.

“If the ducks line up, we also expect the NZD to fall modestly against the USD and the yen. But in particular, this modest fall is contingent on the US economy continuing to improve,” Mr Penny says.

ENDS


© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Department Of Conservation: Beech Mast On The Cards After Warm Summer

Climate modelling shows this year’s hot March has increased the chance of beech forest seeding next summer in parts of New Zealand, which could be bad news for native wildlife. The Department of Conservation (DOC) uses data from NIWA’s virtual climate ... More>>

Government: Delivering Lower Card Fees To Business

Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark has today announced the Government’s next steps to reduce merchant service fees, that banks charge businesses when customers use a credit or debit card to pay, which is estimated to save New Zealand businesses ... More>>

SEEK NZ Employment Report: April 2021

OVERVIEW OF APRIL 2021: STATE OF THE NATION: April, for the second consecutive month, saw the highest number of jobs ever advertised on seek.co.nz. Applications per job ad fell 9% month-on-month (m/m). SEEK job ads were up by 12% m/m. SEEK job ads were ... More>>

Geo40: Global Plans To Recover Low-Carbon Lithium At Scale Accelerated By Investment Of Up To $7.5m By Pacific Channel

New Zealand’s leading sustainable, mineral-recovery company, Geo40 Limited has secured up to $7.5m in equity investment from New Zealand deep-tech specialist Venture Capital firm Pacific Channel to fast-track plans to develop its nascent lithium-from-geothermal-fluid ... More>>

Stats: Lower Job Security Linked To Lower Life Satisfaction

People who feel their employment is insecure are more likely than other employed people to rate their overall life satisfaction poorly, Stats NZ said today. New survey data from the March 2021 quarter shows that 26 percent of employed people who thought ... More>>

The Conversation: The Outlook For Coral Reefs Remains Grim Unless We Cut Emissions Fast — New Research

A study of 183 coral reefs worldwide quantified the impacts of ocean warming and acidification on reef growth rates. Even under the lowest emissions scenarios, the future of reefs is not bright. More>>