Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - Late Tackle

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - Late Tackle

[Full release with chart and links]


• Consumer sentiment continues to retreat, though from highs.

• Consumers are less upbeat about the economy over the year ahead. They are not downbeat, simply more cautious.

• House price expectations remain elevated, with little sign of a shift in sentiment following recently announced targeted measures.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence is playing increasingly defensively – albeit with a solid lead on the board.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index eased 4 points from 123.9 to 119.9. Looking at the score card we note that confidence remains above average (117.9), but there is no doubting the scoring rate has slowed.

Key results included:

A net 7% believe they are financially better off compared to last year. That’s a draw with last month.

It’s still perceived as a good time to buy a major household item though it’s at a less exuberant level (+38, down from +42).

One-year-ahead expectations regarding the economy took a sliding tackle, falling from +21 to +11 – that’s the lowest level in over two years. Sentiment regarding the economy five years ahead likewise got a yellow card (falling from +25 to +17).

The Current Conditions Index (a concurrent indicator of spending trends) slipped from 124.6 to 122.6; still the top-scorer.

The Future Conditions Index eased from 123.4 to 118.1.

Canterbury showed the largest fall in consumer sentiment; the kick from the rebuild is fading and substitutes are needed.

The remainder of the South Island showed a large fall in future conditions; this sub-index is now locked in its own half at less than 100.

It’s natural to be a little glum heading into winter but the muddy conditions do not explain the falls in our consumer confidence indexes. Our seasonally adjusted estimates show similar falls to the headline data.

It’s been a game of two halves for consumers and sentiment reflects that. General inflation is low, so purchasing power is high. But petrol prices have moved up; that’s immediately noticeable in the pocket. Job growth remains brisk, but so too does competition for roles; the past year has seen 73,000 people enter the labour market, which has broadly matched the creation of new jobs (74,000). Net on net that’s still a massive positive for the economy. The Auckland housing market remains strong and interest rates have moved lower. However, economic headwinds are becoming more pronounced – there is a reason interest rates are on the slide. Dairy prices are low and the new reality appears to be settling in across some regions. Stimulus from the Canterbury rebuild is coming to a peak; it hasn’t stopped and will be ongoing for years, but Christchurch needs to be looking for alternate and broader drivers of growth.

© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


DoC: A Tale Of Two Halves For Rock Wren/Tuke
It’s a tale of two halves for rock wren/tuke with their fortunes hanging on effective predator control, the latest South Island-wide survey shows. The Department of Conservation monitoring programme, now in its third year, tracks populations of this small alpine bird... More>>

TradeMe: Wages Remain Hot While Job Listings Cool Off
Salaries are skyrocketing in the regions as Kiwi employers battle to attract staff and combat the rising cost of living, according to the analysis of over 77,000 vacancies listed on Trade Me Jobs for the quarter ending 30 June (Q2)... More>>

Tegel: Chicken Prices On The Rise But It’s Still The Favourite Protein For Kiwi Families

A combination of domestic and international factors is forcing New Zealand’s largest poultry supplier Tegel to raise its prices from July. The roughly 10% price rise is a result of ongoing cost pressures on the industry, including increases in labour... More>>

Motor Industry Association: New Vehicle Registrations Soften

The Motor Industry Association’s Mark Stockdale says that 12,049 registrations of new vehicles for the month of June shows the market is weakening in the face of raising costs of living... More>>

MYOB: New Data Shows Increase In SMEs Experiencing Stress And Anxiety

The lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a surge in the number of local SME owners and operators experiencing stress and anxiety, according to new research from business management platform, MYOB... More>>

Carbonz: Cashing In On Carbon: The New Marketplace Helping Native Forest To Thrive

The country’s first voluntary carbon credit marketplace, Carbonz, is here to restore native biodiversity and help Aotearoa reach its carbon zero goals by selling the first carbon credits exclusively from native forest... More>>