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HiFX morning Update, October 19, 2018

The NZD opens down slightly at 0.6542

Pretty mixed night in the markets. Stocks are off again, which is not helping risk sentiment. The Fed came out saying that they still think gradual rate hikes are appropriate, which helps keep the USD bid.

UK Retail Sales m/m missed, coming in down 0.8%, compared to -0.4% expected. This is a pretty volatile data point, but still not great. Brexit news continues to come in mixed, with the latest being that Teresa May has floated an idea to extend the Brexit transition period. This was perceived relatively negatively by the market, as it does not imply that a deal is close. One insight to come though, is that if we do get a “No deal” it is not really going to be marketed as such. It will likely will be labelled as an extension to talks (which are going very positively of course), and a way to get the best deal possible, rather than rushing something through half finished. This therefore makes one think that risks are potentially a little skewed. A positive deal would see a very sudden increase in the Pound, but the lack of a near term deal would possibly be a longer term, slower sell off.

Going forward today, we have a slew of Chinese data out at 3:00 PM NZT. Generally Chinese data does not come in with too many surprises, but will be closely watch by Australia nevertheless.

There is a Bank holiday in New Zealand on Monday, so while we will be open to deal, clients with urgent payments will want to make sure they are settled today.


Global Equity markets are universally down, - Dow -1.23%, S&P 500 -1.41%, FTSE -0.39%, DAX -1.07%, CAC -0.55%, Nikkei -0.80%, Shanghai -2.94%.

Gold prices are up to $1,230 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are off again, down 2.0% to $68.70 a barrel.

ends

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