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HiFX morning Update, November 26, 2018

NZDUSD 0.6781 -0.5%
NZDEUR 0.5981 0.1%
NZDGBP 0.5285 -0.1%
NZDJPY 76.59 -0.5%
NZDAUD 0.9377 -0.1%
NZDCAD 0.8976 -0.1%
GBPNZD 1.8921 0.1%

The big news over the weekend is that Britain and the European Union finally agreed a divorce deal which enables the UK to leave the block next year. Although this is a major breakthrough it remains to be seen if British Prime Minister Theresa May can now sell the deal to her divided parliament. Mrs May is expected to call a parliamentary vote before Christmas and if she gains the necessary support Britain would be on course to leave the bloc on March 29, with a transition period until December 2020. A no-vote would bring into question May’s leadership and would trigger a 21-day deadline at the end of which the government would have to outline how they intend to proceed.

On Friday IHS Markit reported the Euro-zone private sector grew at the slowest pace in nearly four years with the purchasing managers' index, which combines manufacturing and services falling to 52.4 in November following a 53.1 reading in October. Economists had forecast the index to inch down to 53.0.

Local drivers for the NZD this week begin with this morning’s quarterly retail sales report which is expected to show sales increasing by 1.0%, while on Wednesday the RBNZ are widely tipped to loosen in LVR restrictions as part of their Financial Stability Report.

At the back end of the week investors will look to Friday mornings FOMC meeting minutes ahead of the weekends G20 summit for guidance. Markets will be hoping for a calming of tensions between China and the US which have so far caused a major sell-off in global equities.

Global equity market closed out the week mixed, - Dow -0.73%, S&P 500 -0.65%, FTSE -0.11%, DAX +0.49%, CAC +0.18%, Nikkei +0.65%, Shanghai -2.49%.

Gold prices edged lower Friday, down 0.4% closing out the week at $1,222 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices tumbled on Friday, down a further 6.1% and trading to a new 2018 low of $50.59 a barrel.


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