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XE Morning Update

NZDUSD 0.6705 0.0%
NZDEUR 0.6022 0.2%
NZDGBP 0.5371 -0.3%
NZDJPY 72.55 0.0%
NZDAUD 0.9612 0.4%
NZDCAD 0.8817 0.1%
GBPNZD 1.8616 0.2%

The Kiwi opens up at 0.6705, the exact same as yesterday. NZ’s Trade Balance came in higher than expected, which on the face of it is positive. However practically both Imports and Exports fell, only imports fell more, so when you read into it, it is hardly as positive as it sounds.

Out of the UK, Boris Johnson has been confirmed as Prime Minister. While this doesn’t on the face of it drastically change the Brexit math, it certainly livens things back up. Since the market has known Teresa May was on the way out, Brexit has taken a back seat somewhat, while the UK waited on a new leader. Now he has been confirmed in, the thinking is he is more willing to gamble on a no deal Brexit, and he has said they are going to “Come out of the EU on October 31 no ifs or buts”. I would hate to remind you though that Teresa May also promised no extensions… Given all that, I think the general thought is that Boris will be a little more Trump-esque in his negotiation style, so we can expect a lot of brinkmanship, and more volatility out of the Pound.

Overnight we have the ECB with its Main Refencing Rate decision. These are generally quite predicable, (Hold with dovish comments). However this time the chance of a cut is actually running at 39%. This would be pretty big news if they did cut, and even a hold should now see the EUR strengthen.

Global equity markets have turned positive, Dow -0.35%, S&P 500 +0.42%, FTSE -0.73%, DAX +0.26%, CAC -0.22%, Nikkei +0.41%, Shanghai +0.80%.

Gold prices are up a touch at $1,424 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are off, down 1.6%, trading at $55.83 a barrel.


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