Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search


The future of house prices – how high can they go?

New analysis from New Zealand Media and Entertainment’s OneRoof shows the New Zealand property market will be in for a wild ride if the last 20 years are anything to go by. OneRoof has taken the change in the median sale price for every territorial authority in New Zealand between 1999 and 2019 and applied the same percentage increase to current house prices over the next 20 years.

OneRoof undertook the exercise to see what the results would like look like if the market cycle repeated itself over the next 2 decades.

The results are eyewatering – even by today’s house price standards. The median price of a house in Auckland could rise to almost $3 million by 2040 - more than three times what it is now. The most expensive to buy will still likely be Queenstown - buyers there may have to stump up $4.79 million for a home, as opposed to about $1 million now.

OneRoof says the figures suggest Wairoa in Hawke's Bay will be the cheapest place to buy property in 20 years' time, with house prices there expected to rise to a relatively affordable $353,309.

Home owners in Carterton can imagine a median price of $1.9 million, Kapiti Coast $2.3 million and Invercargill $1.2 million.

OneRoof editor Owen Vaughan says: "We thought we would go out on a limb and look at what house prices might look like in 20 years' time. The last 20 years have seen major changes to the housing market, with prices rising between 200 and 500 percent for the majority of the country.”

Some counsel caution when looking at historical data. Mike Jones, senior economist with the ASB, told OneRoof: “It’s hard to be definitive about what the next 20 years will bring given we don’t know the shape of some pretty important factors, such as population growth and the political backdrop. We do think the housing market is going to have a tough time matching its past performance."

OneRoof commentator and former Property Institute of New Zealand CEO Ashley Church says the secret to understanding the future of the property market is to understand its past. “Over the past 40 years we’ve seen house prices, in most of New Zealand, increase by between 70 percent and 100 percent or more, every decade, there’s no reason to believe that pattern will change."

See the full OneRoof story here.

© Scoop Media

Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines


TradeMe: Property Prices In Every Region Hit New High For The Very First Time

Property prices experienced their hottest month on record in December, with record highs in every region, according to the latest Trade Me Property Price Index.\ Trade Me Property spokesperson Logan Mudge said the property market ended the year with ... More>>

Motor Industry Association: 2020 New Vehicle Registrations Suffer From Covid-19

Chief Executive David Crawford says that like some other sectors of the New Zealand economy, the new vehicle sector suffered from a case of Covid-19. Confirmed figures for December 2020 show registrations of 8,383 were 25% ... More>>

CTU 2021 Work Life Survey: COVID And Bullying Hit Workplaces Hard, Huge Support For Increased Sick Leave

New data from the CTU’s annual work life survey shows a snapshot of working people’s experiences and outlook heading out of 2020 and into the new year. Concerningly 42% of respondents cite workplace bullying as an issue in their workplace - a number ... More>>

Smelter: Tiwai Deal Gives Time For Managed Transition

Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed to working on a managed transition with the local community,” Grant Robertson said. More>>


Real Estate: Auckland’s Rental Market Ends Year Near $600 Per Week Mark

The average weekly rent in Auckland reached a new high of $595 at the end of 2020, just shy of a long-anticipated $600 per week. More>>

University of Auckland: Pest-Free Goal Won’t Be Achieved Without New And Better Tools

New Zealand’s goal to become predator free by 2050 will remain an unrealised dream unless new technologies and advances in social engagement continue to be developed, researchers who first promoted it say. A team from the University of Auckland has ... More>>

OECD: Area Employment Rate Rose By 1.9 Percentage Points In The Third Quarter Of 2020

OECD area employment rate rose by 1.9 percentage points in the third quarter of 2020, but remained 2.5 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level The OECD area [1] employment rate – the share of the working-age population with jobs – rose ... More>>

Economy: Strong Job Ad Performance In Quarter Four

SEEK Quarterly Employment Report data shows a positive q/q performance with a 19% national growth in jobs advertised during Q4 2020, which includes October, November and December. Comparing quarter 4, 2020, with the same quarter in 2019 shows that job ad volumes are 7% lower...More>>