Video | Agriculture | Confidence | Economy | Energy | Employment | Finance | Media | Property | RBNZ | Science | SOEs | Tax | Technology | Telecoms | Tourism | Transport | Search

 

Regions have a stable quarter on the scoreboard


Media release
ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard Q3 2019
Monday 16 December 2019

         Regions have a stable quarter on the scoreboard

·         The scoreboard remained fairly stable this quarter, with three regions holding their table position and a further six moving less than three places.
·         Gisborne held onto its reign at the top of the leaderboard.
·         Hawke’s Bay climbed back into medal position, taking out silver.
·         Auckland jumped seven places to third equal after a bounce in consumer confidence.
·         Northland dipped seven spots from third place into 10th equal.
·         Nelson fell two places to the bottom rung of the ladder.

Gisborne retains its gold medal status

After spending two quarters climbing from 13th equal on the scoreboard to first, Gisborne has held onto its place at the top of the ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard.

As well as securing gold and a five-star rating, Gisborne also led the regions in retail sales, house price growth and construction on an annual growth basis.

“Gisborne has been on an excellent run with its diverse mix of export industries,” said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley.

“It also seems that the impact of the recent weakening of log prices has yet to be felt in the region. Looking ahead, we anticipate that the record meat prices are likely to see the region stay near the top of the Scoreboard over 2020,” said Tuffley.

Hawke’s Bay rallies after a dip last quarter, to take second place

After falling from first to fifth last quarter, the Hawke’s Bay regained its speed, pulling back into second place and claiming the silver medal.

“After a one-quarter hiatus, the Hawke’s Bay is back snapping at Gisborne’s heels on the Scoreboard. Given that the Bay has claimed the silver medal this quarter, our move for the region to retain its five-star rating last quarter has proved justified,” said Tuffley.

The accommodation and retail sectors were the region’s hotspots over the September quarter, with Tuffley saying he expected the economic good times to roll on in 2020.

“With the majority of Bay industries in rude health we expect the region to duke it out with neighbour Gisborne, and other willing regions, for top stop in the Scoreboard over the next few quarters,” said Tuffley.

The sleeping giant wakes

Auckland has leaped seven places to third equal this quarter, after languishing between 7th and 10th place for the last three quarters.

“Auckland consumers were feeling chirpy over the quarter, leading the nationwide consumer confidence measure,” said Tuffley.

“Perhaps this buoyancy owes to the housing market showing signs of life, after a prolonged hiatus. On that front and with mortgage rates near record lows, perhaps Auckland may be sizing up Gisborne’s top spot. Indeed, we might get to see Goliath take on David over coming quarters,” said Tuffley.

Auckland claimed a five-star rating alongside its bronze medal.

Northland dips seven spots

The up-down pattern of Northland’s Scoreboard rankings has continued this quarter, with the region slipping back to 10th equal from third last quarter.

Unfortunately this dip, and the region’s new position in the bottom half of the scoreboard, meant the North lost a star, falling back to a three-star rating.

“Volatile results aside, we anticipate that Northland’s diverse industry base will serve it well over 2020, particularly as the horticulture and beef sectors perform well. In that sense, it’s a case of bring on the new year for the North,” said Tuffley.

Nelson relegated to the bottom of the scoreboard

It may be ‘top of the South’ but Nelson was decidedly bottom this quarter, falling two spots to last place and losing a star in the process.

The bright spot for the regions was housing market activity this quarter, with the region recording the second-highest annual growth in sales in the country.

“Outside of housing however, Nelson’s results were decidedly mediocre. Perhaps the region’s economy needs to look to the victorious Makos for some inspiration,” said Tuffley.
The full ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard, along with other recent ASB reports covering a range of commentary, can be accessed at our ASB Economic Insights page: https://www.asb.co.nz/

@ASBBank  @ASBMarkets www.asb.co.nz

ENDS

The full report is attached.
ScoreboardQ32019_FINAL.pdf

About the ASB Regional Economic Scoreboard
The NZ Regional Economic Scoreboard takes the latest quarterly regional statistics and ranks the economic performance of New Zealand’s 16 Regional Council areas. The fastest growing regions gain the highest ratings, and a good performance by the national economy raises the ratings of all regions. Ratings are updated every three months, and are based on 11 measures, including employment, construction, retail trade, and house prices.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Business Headlines | Sci-Tech Headlines

 

Paymark: Lockdown Equals Slowdown For Some

The three days of lockdown for Auckland earlier this month made a clear impression on our retail spending figures. While only Auckland moved into Level 3 lockdown, the impact was felt across the country, albeit at different levels. Looking at the ... More>>

Infrastructure Commission: Te Waihanga Releases Report On Water Infrastructure

The New Zealand Infrastructure Commission, Te Waihanga’s latest discussion document highlights the importance of current reforms in the water sector. Its State of Play discussion document about water infrastructure is one of a series looking at the ... More>>

Sci-Tech: Perseverance Rover Lands On Mars – Expert Reaction

NASA has landed a car-sized rover on the red planet to search for signs of past life. The vehicle has more instruments than the four rovers preceding it, and it’s also carrying gear that could help pave the way for human exploration of Mars. The ... More>>

ALSO:


ASB: Quarterly Economic Forecast Predicts OCR Hike As Early As August 2022

Predictions of interest rate rises have been brought forward 12 months in ASB’s latest Quarterly Economic Forecast. Chief Economist Nick Tuffley now expects the RBNZ to begin raising the OCR from its current level of 0.25% as early as August ... More>>

ACT: Matariki Almost A Half Billion Dollar Tax On Business

“Official advice to the Government says an extra public holiday at Matariki could cost almost $450 million,” ACT Leader David Seymour can reveal. “This is a perfect example of the Prime Minister doing what’s popular versus what’s responsible. ... More>>

Genesis: Assessing 6,000 GWh Of Renewable Generation Options For Development By 2025

Genesis is assessing 6,000 GWh of renewable generation options for development after starting a closed RFP process with 11 partners. Those invited to participate offer a range of technologies as Genesis continues to execute its Future-gen strategy to ... More>>

OECD: Unemployment Rate Stable At 6.9% In December 2020, 1.7 Percentage Points Higher Than In February 2020

The OECD area unemployment rate was stable at 6.9% in December 2020, remaining 1.7 percentage points above the level observed in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the labour market. [1] In December, the unemployment rate was also stable ... More>>

Stats NZ: Unemployment Drops To 4.9 Percent As Employment Picks Up

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 4.9 percent in the December 2020 quarter, from 5.3 percent in the September 2020 quarter, Stats NZ said today. Last quarter’s unemployment rate of 5.3 percent followed the largest increase observed ... More>>