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Household Labour Force Survey Estimated Working-age Population: September 2020 Quarter

The household labour force survey estimated working-age population table shows the population benchmarks used to produce household labour force survey estimates for the upcoming labour market statistics release.

Household labour force survey estimated working-age population: September 2020 quarter

New national population estimates are the source of the HLFS working-age population estimates. On 6 October 2020, following the 2018 estimated resident population revisions, we published the household labour force survey (HLFS) estimates, rebased back to September 2006.

This release includes the latest September 2020 quarter working-age population estimates and the rebased estimates. Refer to Household labour force survey population rebase from 2018 estimated resident population for the differences in the working-age population pre- and post-rebase.

From the December 2020 quarter release, we will continue to revise the working-age population back seven quarters to align with the most up-to-date migration estimates.

Impact of COVID-19 on population estimates

HLFS target population estimates are derived from the national population estimates by applying exclusions to match the working-age population definition. National population estimates are derived each quarter by updating estimates from the latest census-base estimated resident population with estimates of births, deaths, and net migration for the quarter.

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On 14 March 2020, New Zealand’s borders closed to almost all travellers, except for returning New Zealanders, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Repatriation flights have since occurred both into and out of the country; however, the overall number of border crossings is at an all-time low. Our normal initial estimate approach for migration is to forecast the monthly migration series using an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. However, the border closure has meant that this method is not currently valid as it would significantly overstate migration.

Net migration was assumed to be zero in the June 2020 quarter, rather than using the usual extrapolative method. This assumption has been vindicated by subsequent official migration estimates.

Net migration estimates over the May and June 2020 months have shown a small net migration gain to New Zealand. Based on this, an assumption of a 500-person net migration gain per month has been made for the July–September 2020 period. The age and sex distribution of migrants is also assumed to match that of the May and June months.

Definitions and metadata

Household labour force survey – DataInfo+ gives the general methodology used to produce household labour force statistics.

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