Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence, June Quarter 2024

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index (ECI) fell by 13 points from 104.4 to 91.4 in the June quarter. This was the lowest reading since the country was emerging from the first Covid-19 lockdown.

“New Zealanders have taken a much dimmer view of the labour market over the last three months,” said Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac. “Perceptions about current job opportunities fell sharply in the June quarter, and suggest that a further rise in the unemployment rate is coming in the months ahead.”

“A rise in unemployment has been long anticipated as part of the Reserve Bank’s efforts to tame inflation pressures,” noted Mr Gordon. “We haven’t seen a significant rise in layoffs to date, perhaps due to employers looking to hold on to workers. But that may change as the economy’s slowdown progresses.”

Employment confidence was weaker across every region of the country. In terms of the major centres, Auckland saw the biggest decline for the June quarter.

“Confidence amongst employees in both the public and private sectors has taken a real knock this quarter, with confidence levels close to those last seen in September 2020,” noted Imogen Rendall, Market Research Director of McDermott Miller Limited. “For employees in the private sector, confidence has dropped 19.1 points down to 89.5, and for those working in the public sector, confidence has dropped 11.1 points down to 94.6.”

“Both private and public sector employees have taken a particularly pessimistic view on the current availability of jobs, together with future job opportunities in a year’s time,” observed Ms Rendall. “Private sector employees are also indicating a real concern regarding their future job security. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the months to come,” commented Ms Rendall.

The survey was conducted over 1-12 June 2024, with a sample size of 1,553. An index number over 100 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The margin of error of the survey is 2.5%.

Full description of the background

Specifications of the survey

Acknowledgement

The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index is owned by McDermott Miller Limited. Westpac-McDermott Miller should be acknowledged as the source when citing the Employment Confidence Survey and Index. Graphs supplied may be reproduced by the news media provided Westpac-McDermott Miller is acknowledged as the source.

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