Recession Longer And Deeper, But Investment Remains Strong In Capital And Training

Data released today reveals the economic recession has been deeper and longer than expected.

The survey of around 140 Business Leaders’ Health and Safety Forum organisations shows that despite this longer-term pain, many of those businesses have invested more than planned in capital and their people in the past year.

The survey forms part of the work for the Forum’s annual State of a Thriving Nation report, produced by economist Shamubeel Eaqub, which takes a deeper look at the cost of New Zealand’s health and safety performance – last year putting that at a figure of $4.9 billion for 2024 alone.

The 2025 report will be released in September and this year while also updating those annual economic figures, it will take a deeper look into what businesses are doing to drive better health, safety and productivity performance.

“The survey data released today shows that the economic cycle has been deeper and longer than expected by leaders of large organisations, consistent with the disappointment seen across the wider business sector,” says economist Shamubeel Eaqub.

“We’re seeing elevated global uncertainty, combined with a slower than usual recovery following interest rate cuts – with slowing net migration and fiscal austerity acting as headwinds.”

Forum businesses have continued, however, to invest more in capital, training and health and safety, in contrast to the wider economy where investment here has fallen.

“The experience of the recession shows that Forum businesses, who are generally larger organsiations, have continued to prioritise the health and safety of their people, demonstrating that the leaders of these businesses understand that this work is a crucial part of the way they run their business, even in difficult economic conditions,” says Forum Chief Executive Francois Barton.

While a net 0% of Forum members reported sales growth in the past year, the survey shows they are optimistic for the year ahead,” says Shamubeel.

“This data tells us that 40% of Forum leaders expect growth next year, and with an economic recovery on the way, we expect to see that continued prioritisation in health and safety ramp up, not just because of compliance, but because it is integral to better business outcomes,” says Shamubeel.

The Forum’s 2025 State of a Thriving Nation report will be released in early September 2025.

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