Oil Slick: NZ's Economy Still Grows Amid Turbulent Times

The latest BusinessNZ Planning Forecast shows that while the economic outlook largely depends on how the conflict in Iran evolves, current forecasts still point to encouraging growth through to March 2028.

Chief Economist John Pask says even as we navigate stormy seas internationally, there are reasons to remain optimistic at home.

"Our construction sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased consenting activity and a strong infrastructure pipeline, as has been outlined by the Infrastructure Commission.

"Tourism has rebounded too, and international visitor numbers are back to pre-covid levels, aided in part by a lower NZ dollar.

"On the agricultural front, Fonterra’s sale of several consumer brands for around $4 billion is expected to boost incomes and support rural communities. On the downside, input costs, including fertiliser, are likely to rise significantly if the conflict continues.

Pask says this latest Planning Forecast comes with a special note, due to a developing geopolitical situation.

"Given the fluid international economic situation at present, forecasts on economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and unemployment, should be seen for what they are - the best available information to date. These forecasts will likely be subject to significant change as both the global and domestic scene continues to evolve over coming weeks."

The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index (ECI) is a measure of some of NZ’s key economic indicators. It sits at 18 for the March 2026 quarter, down 6 on the previous quarter, and up 13 on a year ago. An ECI reading above 0 indicates that economic conditions are generally improving overall; below 0 means economic conditions are generally declining.

The latest BusinessNZ Planning forecast is available now on the BusinessNZ website.

© Scoop Media