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Deutsche Bank - Preview GDP - June Quarter 1999

Economic Note (New Zealand)
NZ: Preview GDP - June Quarter 1999

Key Points

Release date:::::::::::::::: Friday 24 September, 10.45am (NZT)

Deutsche Bank forecasts:::::: Production GDP: 0.5% qoq; 2.7% yoy

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Expenditure GDP: 0.7% qoq; 3.7% yoy

Forecast risk:::::::::::::::: Balanced risk assessment

RBNZ forecast:::::::::::::::: Production GDP: 0.5% qoq; 2.7% yoy

Market expectations (Median): Production GDP: 0.5% qoq. Range: +0.2%/+0.9% qoq

Previous release (Mar qtr)::::::Production GDP: 0.7% qoq; 1.5% yoy

DB GDP June Qtr Forecasts:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: % Point
::::::::::::::::::::::::: Quarter %:::::Annual %::::: Cont. To
::::::::::::::::::::::::: Change::::: Change::::: GDP Quarterly

Group (seriesweights)::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Outcome

Priv. Consumption (63.4%):::::0.8:::::::::: 2.1:::::::::: 0.5

Gov't Consumption (17.0%):::::0.2:::::::::: 0.8:::::::::: 0.0

Investment (16.0%):::::::::: -1.9:::::::::: 7.0:::::::::: -0.4

Increase in Stocks (0.1%):::::0.4:::::::::: 0.5:::::::::: 0.4

GNE (96.4%)::::::::::::::: 0.5:::::::::: 3.2:::::::::: 0.5

Exports (30.0%):::::::::: -2.4:::::::::: 6.9:::::::::: -0.8

Imports (26.5%):::::::::: -2.6:::::::::: 5.1:::::::::: 1.0

Expenditure GDP:::::::::::::::0.7:::::::::: 3.7:::::::::: 0.7


Reflecting the recent release of weaker-than-expected manufacturing sector data, we have edged back our June quarter production GDP estimate from an increase of around 0.6-0.7% qoq to 0.5% qoq. Nevertheless, within the total we expect a positive contribution from the services sector (largely reflecting projected growth in the transport & communication, finance and wholesale industries) to more than offset on-going weakness in the agricultural and primary processing sectors. On an expenditure basis, we expect a positive contribution from consumption expenditure and stockbuilding to be somewhat dampened by a negative investment contribution and a reasonably flat net external sector profile. With our quarterly GDP estimate now in line with the RBNZ's August Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) projection, such an outturn will reinforce our expectation that the Reserve Bank will keep the OCR unchanged at the 29 September review. Instead, we expect the RBNZ to raise the cash rate by 50 bp to 5.0% at the November MPS.

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