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RBNZ MPS: Summary of economic projections

Table 1
Summary of economic projections
(Annual percentage change, unless specified otherwise)

::::::Actuals::::::Projections
March year::::::1998::::::1999::::::2000::::::2001::::::2002

Price measures::::::
::::::CPIX*::::::1.7::::::1.0::::::2.5::::::1.7::::::1.6
::::::Wages::::::2.6::::::2.7::::::1.9::::::2.4::::::3.0
::::::Import prices (in New Zealand dollars) ::::::2.9::::::2.7::::::4.1::::::-2.0::::::0.0
::::::Export prices (in New Zealand dollars) ::::::4.9::::::-1.1::::::2.0::::::-0.3::::::0.7

Monetary conditions
::::::Nominal MCI (year average)::::::700::::::-50::::::-250::::::0::::::175
::::::90-day rate (year average)::::::8.0::::::6.2::::::5.1::::::6.2::::::6.6
::::::TWI (year average)::::::64.4::::::57.3::::::56.5::::::57.8::::::59.4

Output::::::
::::::GDP (production, annual average % change)::::::2.0::::::-0.2::::::2.6::::::4.1::::::3.8
::::::Output gap (% of potential GDP, year average)::::::0.7::::::-1.8::::::-1.5::::::0.0::::::0.8

Key balances
::::::Government operating balance ::::::2.6::::::1.8::::::0.0::::::0.5::::::1.2
::::::(% of GDP, June year average)
::::::Current account balance::::::-5.6::::::-5.7::::::-7.9::::::-6.4::::::-5.5
::::::(% of GDP, year average)
::::::Terms of trade (annual average % change)::::::-0.6::::::-0.5::::::-1.6::::::-1.2::::::1.9
::::::Unemployment rate (March qtr. s.a.)::::::7.1::::::7.2::::::6.9::::::6.4::::::5.8
::::::Household savings rate (% of disposable income)::::::-0.1::::::0.6::::::-0.3::::::-0.2::::::1.1

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World economy
::::::World GDP (annual average % change)::::::3.1::::::0.9::::::3.4::::::3.1::::::3.3
::::::World CPI inflation::::::2.4::::::1.0::::::1.7::::::1.9::::::1.9


Quarterly projections::::::Jun-99::::::Sep-99::::::Dec-99::::::Mar-00::::::Jun-00
(quarterly percentage change, unless specified otherwise)

::::::CPIX::::::0.5::::::0.6::::::0.9::::::0.5::::::0.6
::::::CPIX (annual percentage change)*::::::1.2::::::1.3::::::2.2::::::2.5::::::2.6
::::::GDP (production, s.a.)::::::-0.3::::::1.3::::::0.9::::::0.9::::::1.1

s.a. = seasonally adjusted
Notes for this table are in Appendix 4
* Up to and including the June 1999 quarter, the series is the annual percentage change in CPIX. From June 2000, the series is the annual percentage change in the new CPI. For September 1999 to March 2000, the series is calculated by adding the quarterly increases in the new CPI to the quarterly increases in the old CPI excluding interest rates and section prices.

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