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Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – Oct. 22, 2006

Molesworth & Featherston - Weekend Update edition

Business and Political News
October 22nd 2006

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Rolling average poll
Mole poll sees Maori Party as PM-maker

Just one new poll into our data this week, and it is a somewhat historical one from UMR that we have received second hand. It was taken before the auditor-general’s report into election spending was released - and all the publicity that went with it. In it National was holding only a slender lead, at odds with most other recent data.

Nevertheless in our rolling poll of polls National holds a commanding lead still. So assuming the sitting minor party leaders hold their seats (and the Maori Party keeps all four seats it holds) then the results are:

Percent seats
National 43.22 55
Labour 39.20 49
Greens 7.18 9
NZ First 3.02 0
Maori Party 2.75 4
United Future 1.50 2
Act 1.39 2
Progressive 0.16 1

It is a 122 seat House with one Progressive and one Maori Party overhang seat. The required 62 seats for a majority are still hard to come by for National unless we assume a deal with either the Maori Party plus Act and United Future or the Greens. A two party Blue-Green Government would be the simplest to form. (I can't believe I just wrote that either!)

Labour, Jim Anderton and the Greens would need the Maori Party too - United Future would not quite be enough. The combinations are even more complex than the current Parliament, but the Maori Party is in an extraordinarily strong position to determine the shape of the next Government, as are the Greens to a lesser extent, once NZ First falls out of the equation.


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