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Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – Oct. 29 2006

Molesworth & Featherston - Weekend Update edition

Business and Political News
October 29th 2006

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Rolling average poll

National Open Five-Point Lead

As Labour spends the weekend at its party conference there are dramatic changes going on in the numbers underlying our rolling poll of polls - though they’re not really reflected in the seats or the possible make-up of a Government that we extrapolate from them.

Both the latest Roy Morgan poll and the more historical UMR poll showed Labour and National virtually neck and neck. Then up popped Monday’s One News poll, showing a vast thirteen point lead for National - unseen since the Winter of Discontent in 2000. But hey, that’s why we like our middle-ofthe road poll of polls which irons out these huge contradictory swings.

Among the minor parties there are interesting dynamics at work too. The Greens are firming to about seven per cent. Below the radar New Zealand First also seems to be holding or improving slightly after dipping down close to three per cent, although it is still below five per cent. Act is also looking a little better.

Assuming the Maori Party keeps its four seats and the party leaders in the House hold their electorates, it is a 122 seat House with one Progressive and one Maori Party overhang seat. Labour with the Greens and Jim Anderton is three short of a majority. A National-led Government would need Act and United Future plus the Maori Party, or the Greens alone:

National 44.55% 55 seats
Labour 39.06 49
Greens 6.98 9
NZ First 3.71 0
Maori Party 2.06 4
United Future 1.44 2
Act 1.56 2
Progressive 0.16 1


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