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Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – Nov 19th 2006

Molesworth & Featherston - Weekend Update edition

Business and Political News
November 19th 2006

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Moley Poll
Four point gap

The UMR poll is back in the National Business Review and enters our data this week, surprisingly opening National’s lead over Labour to four points again. Surprising, because this survey has tended to be in the middle of the range, perhaps with a slight centre-left bias. Surprising too because since its annual conference in Rotorua Labour seemed to be on the mend. Perhaps it was a lag from the previous two months of agony for Helen Clark’s Government, but it will give National pause for thought before it rushes into a leadership spill this side of Christmas - the moment for which must almost have gone now.

The other notable thing in our exclusive rolling poll is the continued firming of the Green vote - seats now in double figures note - on the back of international climate change concerns.

So the numbers are, assuming four Maori Party seats and sitting leaders hold their constituencies:

Percent seats
National 42.61 54
Labour 38.87 49
Greens 7.57 10
NZ First 3.53 0
Maori Party 2.36 4
United Future 1.79 2
Act 1.46 2
Progressive 0.16 1

It is still a 122 seat House with one Maori Party seat and Jim Anderton as overhang seats. 62 seats to govern are where exactly? Labour, the Greens and Jim Anderton plus one other from the lucky dip, perhaps. Or National plus United Future and Act with the Maori Party chipping in? Or that odd Blue- Green mix of National and the Greens?


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