Clinton's Last Chance To Go Gracefully
US Election 08: Clinton's Last Chance To Go Gracefully
Hillary
has been talking tough (and sounding hollow) ever since the
Indiana/North Carolina primaries results came in yesterday,
but that’s only to convince prospective donors that
she’s still viable. Really, its all over at last. Barack
Obama has an unassailable lead on the popular vote/pledged
delegate count, and has been winning over superdelegates at
a 5:1 ratio to Clinton of late, even during his last month
of troubles. That flood should now become a tidal wave, at
the same rate as the money flow finally dries up on
Clinton’s campaign, and lack of money will be the decisive
factor that finally ends it for her.
The more
important issue right now is – how much damage, if any
has the months of bruising scrapping done to the Democrats?
Surprising little, compared to the damage that George W.
Bush continues to do to the Republicans on the economy and
on the Iraq war. As the New Republic magazine recently pointed out, Gallup data
shows that since 2002, those people who identify with the
Democratic Party have increased by seven percentage points,
to create what is now a 52-39 identity split among
Americans in favour of the Democrats, over Republicans.
At the same time, the epic Clinton/Obama struggled has energised Democratic enrollment. In Pennsylvania alone, as the New Republic says, there are now about 800,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. “And even in states without party registration, such as Ohio and Virginia, the fact that turnout in the Democratic primary dwarfed turnout in the Republican primary suggests that a similar movement has been taking place. “
Which suggests that even if some die-hard Clinton Democrats do decide to stay home in November and sulk, the race has sufficiently energized the party overall to more than make up the difference. I should warn that this isn’t a sure thing – in 2004, the Democrats still racked up record numbers in its voter registration and lost with John Kerry as candidate. But as the extremely close primary result yesterday in Indiana showed, Obama is not as unelectable as the Clinton camp has been claiming.
Yes, she did
cream him 65-34 among white male voters with no college
degree. . But as Slate’s John
Dickerson says, “among those making less than
$50,000, she beat Obama by only four points in Indiana. When
voters were asked which candidate was most likely to improve
the economy, Clinton and Obama tied. Among those who listed
the economy as their top issue, Clinton won by only two
points in Indiana. In Pennsylvania and Ohio, she had won
those groups by vast margins. “
Yet, like Kerry, is
Obama seen as too elitist ? At times. But perhaps not as
irredeemably as Kerry was in 2004. As Dickerson continues,
when voters were asked which candidate "shares your values,"
Obama performed just a little better than Clinton.
During the campaign proper, John McCain will
undoubtedly resurrect Obama’s links to Reverend Jeremiah
Wright, Weatherman activist William Ayers and Chicago slum
lord Tony Rezko, but – thankfully – these skeletons have
all been brought out of the closet and thoroughly aired over
the last few months by Clinton. McCain will need some fresh
ammunition, and is hardly an unblemished candidate
himself.
A few months ago, one US columnist –
clearly a snooty elitist - compared Clinton to the
Marschallin in the Richard Strauss opera Der Rosenkavelier
– namely, the worldly wise sophisticate who tests her
young lover Octavian, but finally sends him out into the
world to his true destiny, seasoned and ready. If Clinton
does likewise – if she can wish Obama the best of luck and
exit gracefully, there might even be room for her to be
honoured at the August Democratic convention in Denver, and
not reviled.
ENDS